The US market: review and forecast for April 30th. Macro data and bigtechs will set the direction for trading

Our Expectations

 

Market participants will focus today on the release of a large batch of key macroeconomic data. In particular, March personal income data will be published (consensus: +0.3% MoM, February: -0.1%). Analysts at Freedom Broker expect a 0.5% increase, which would offset February’s decline. March personal spending data will also be released (consensus: +0.9% MoM, February: +0.5%), while Freedom Broker expects a 0.8% MoM increase.

The main driver of spending growth will be higher retail sales amid elevated gasoline prices, pushing goods spending to around 1.4% MoM. The dynamics of services spending remain uncertain due to potential household budget cuts amid a sharp rise in energy prices. We expect services spending to increase by 0.5% MoM, signaling continued resilience in consumption.

The key market trigger will be the March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve System views as its primary inflation gauge. The consensus expects headline PCE to accelerate from 0.4% in February to 0.7% MoM. Freedom Broker analysts forecast a 0.6% increase. Inflation is being driven by a sharp rise in energy prices, estimated at around 18% MoM.

Core PCE is expected at 0.27% MoM versus a 0.3% consensus. A notable increase in price pressure could negatively impact equity markets, reinforcing hawkish rhetoric from Jerome Powell following the FOMC meeting.

 

A preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP will also be released this Thursday (consensus: 2.2% QoQ annualized vs. 0.5% previously). Freedom Broker expects growth of 1.8%, while the Atlanta Fed model points to just 1.2%, driven by increased government spending after the shutdown. Economic growth expectations will be revised after the release of consumption and other macro data.

Statements from Washington about possible targeted military strikes on Iran to reopen maritime routes continue to affect global commodity markets, keeping energy prices elevated and increasing long-term inflation risks.

Before the market opens, earnings will be reported by Eli Lilly, Caterpillar, Mastercard, ConocoPhillips, Merck, Valero, and Royal Caribbean Group. After the close, results will be released by SanDisk, Apple, Western Digital, Amgen, Stryker, Reddit, and Roblox.

 

U.S. stock futures are showing moderately positive dynamics. We assess the risk balance for the upcoming session as neutral with high volatility. Mixed signals from tech earnings, combined with expectations of accelerating PCE growth and uncertain GDP data, are prompting investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

 

A breakout of the S&P 500 above the 7170 resistance level would support further gains. A move below the 7110 support level would increase downside risks and confirm a deeper correction amid a reassessment of interest rate expectations.