The US market: an overview and forecast for May 4. Investors in search of landmarks

Our comments and expectations

Geopolitics and the oil market remain the key external factors driving market movements. OPEC+ participants agreed to increase production by 188 thousand barrels per day in June at the first meeting following the UAE’s exit from the alliance. However, the impact of this decision is limited due to ongoing supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed doubts about the acceptability of Iran’s latest peace proposal and announced a program to withdraw civilian vessels from the Persian Gulf, called Project Freedom. This may partially reduce tensions, although escalation risks remain. Oil prices are consolidating near local highs. Amid elevated energy-driven inflationary pressure, Federal Reserve officials indicate that clearer signs of economic cooling—especially in the labor market—are required before discussing rate cuts. The new week is expected to be calmer than the previous one, which was насыщена hawkish monetary commentary, key earnings, and macroeconomic data. Today, March factory orders data (consensus: +0.5%, February: 0%) and the final durable goods orders report (preliminary: +0.8%) will be released. These indicators will help уточнить industrial demand trends but are unlikely to be major market drivers without significant deviations from forecasts. Before the main session, Loews (L), Hess Midstream (HESM), Pinnacle West Capital (PNW), Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), Tyson Foods (TSN), and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) will report. After the close, Palantir (PLTR), ON Semiconductor (ON), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Williams Companies (WMB), Fabrinet (FN), and Pinterest (PINS) will release results.

S&P 500 futures show moderate gains. We assess the risk balance for the upcoming session as neutral with moderate volatility. A strong earnings season supports bullish sentiment, while high oil prices and geopolitical risks limit risk appetite. A breakout above 7270 points would extend the upward trend, while a move below 7175 would increase investor caution.

Premarket highlights

· eBay (EBAY) and GameStop (GME) may attract attention after reports of a non-binding offer by GameStop to acquire eBay at $125 per share. eBay rose more than 13% in postmarket trading, while GameStop gained about 4%. GameStop’s CEO stated plans to transform eBay into an Amazon competitor. However, given GameStop’s ~$12 billion market cap versus eBay’s ~$46 billion, financing risks are significant.

· Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) reported quarterly operating earnings of $11.35 billion (~$5.26 per share). The figure excludes $1.24 billion in investment losses (vs. $5.04 billion a year earlier), signaling core business resilience. Insurance float increased to nearly $177 billion. The absence of buybacks may indicate a more cautious capital allocation approach. CEO Greg Abel emphasized discipline despite ~$380 billion in cash.

· South Korean and Taiwanese indices hit highs amid gains in SK Hynix and TSMC (TSM). TSMC resumed preparations for next-generation chip production using a 1.6 nm process.

· Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Boeing (BA) may react positively to Israel’s approval of F-35 and F-15IA purchases under a $119 billion defense program.

· Airline stocks may benefit from the liquidation of Spirit Airlines, potentially reducing competition and improving pricing discipline.

· Shares of General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Stellantis (STLA) may face pressure due to rising costs tied to raw materials, logistics, and components.

Market recap

On May 1, U.S. markets closed mostly higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.29%, NASDAQ gained 0.94%, Russell 2000 added 0.46%, while the Dow Jones fell 0.31%. Growth was driven primarily by positive corporate developments in the tech sector. Macroeconomic data was mixed. The ISM manufacturing index came in at 52.7, below expectations, signaling persistent inflationary pressure. News of a new Iranian peace proposal eased tensions and led to a 3% decline in WTI oil prices, although geopolitical risks remain.