The US market: an overview and forecast for May 5th. The Middle East is in the spotlight

Our comments and expectations

Geopolitical developments remain the key factor putting pressure on global markets. Tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz persist following reports of attacks on vessels and a port in the UAE. Escalation was also fueled by a statement from U.S. President Donald Trump that Iran would be “wiped off the face of the earth” if it attacks American ships ensuring safe navigation in the strait. At the same time, Washington continues to call on allies to join efforts to secure maritime transportation in the region. Against this backdrop, WTI crude is trading near $101 per barrel. In the macroeconomic calendar, the most important release this Tuesday will be the final readings of the services PMI from S&P Global and ISM for April (consensus: 51.3 and 53.7, respectively). Freedom Broker analysts expect stability in the services sector, with the indicator remaining at the March level of 54 points. Data on job openings (JOLTS) for March will also be released (consensus: 6.85 million, February: 6.882 million). Freedom Broker estimates the figure at around 6.87 million, as it has remained near average levels in recent months without a clear trend. Speeches by Federal Reserve officials Michelle Bowman and Michael Barr will also attract attention. With elevated oil prices and resilient macro data, any signals of a more hawkish stance could increase pressure on equity markets. Before the main session, earnings will be reported by Pfizer, Shopify, Eaton, PayPal, Marathon Petroleum, KKR, and TransDigm Group. After the close, results will be released by AMD, Lumentum Holdings, Strategy, Arista Networks, Occidental Petroleum, Astera Labs, and Super Micro Computer. U.S. stock index futures are showing positive momentum. We assess the risk balance for the upcoming session as neutral with elevated volatility amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. A закреп above 7,250 points in the S&P 500 could signal a shift toward a bullish scenario, while a drop below 7,175 would increase downside risks.

Premarket highlights

· Palantir shares are down about 4% despite beating expectations on EPS ($0.33 vs. $0.28) and revenue ($1.63B vs. ~$1.54B). The company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $7.65–7.66B. The pullback likely reflects high expectations after previous gains.

· Pinterest shares surged about 15% after strong results and guidance of $1.13–1.15B for the current quarter. Q1 revenue rose 18% to $1.01B.

· Duolingo revenue grew 27% to $292M, and paid subscribers increased 21%, but shares fell ~14% due to conservative booking guidance.

· Partnership with Anthropic lifted Fidelity National Information Services shares by 5%.

· Sterling Infrastructure shares jumped about 23% following strong earnings and raised guidance.

· GeneDx shares plunged about 42% after cutting its 2026 revenue forecast.

· ON Semiconductor shares declined about 4% despite signs of demand recovery.

Market yesterday

U.S. markets closed lower on May 4. Pressure came from escalating tensions around Iran and rising Treasury yields. S&P 500 fell 0.41%, NASDAQ 100 dropped 0.21%, Dow Jones declined 1.13%, and Russell 2000 lost 0.6%. Sector performance was mixed. Energy gained on higher oil prices, while materials declined. “Magnificent Seven” stocks traded mixed. Amazon rose on logistics service news, while Apple declined amid pricing concerns. Key pressure came from fears of Middle East escalation and continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI rose 4.4%, and 30-year Treasury yields exceeded 5%. Macroeconomic data was moderately positive. U.S. factory orders rose 1.5% in March. Meanwhile, the Treasury increased borrowing plans, adding pressure to bond markets.

Company news

· Global Business Travel Group will be acquired at $9.50 per share.
· Celcuity reported positive clinical trial results.
· Coinbase announced progress on regulatory matters.
· Norwegian Cruise Line lowered its profit outlook.
· FedEx came under pressure after Amazon launched a new logistics platform.