The US market: review and forecast for April 6. Between war and diplomacy

We expect

The US–Iran conflict remains the key driver of equity market dynamics. Washington, Tehran, and their intermediaries in the Middle East are discussing a “last attempt” to agree on a 45-day ceasefire. However, the probability of reaching a deal within the next 48 hours is considered low. This follows US President Donald Trump’s escalation in rhetoric, including threats to destroy Iranian infrastructure if Tehran does not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 PM ET on April 7. He also announced a press briefing with military officials in the Oval Office on April 6. OPEC+ agreed to increase production quotas at its latest monitoring committee meeting, although this is largely seen as a formal gesture. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for most shipments, with less than 2% of global flows affected. The US has increased reinsurance guarantees for shipping to $40 billion via AIG, Berkshire Hathaway, and other insurers, but market participants remain skeptical about resuming transit without military escort. Brent crude reached $141.36 on April 2, the highest level since 2008. In the macro calendar, the ISM Services PMI for March (consensus: 54.9) and a speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson are in focus. Markets will also digest the March US labor report released on April 3.

S&P 500 futures are slightly higher. The risk balance is neutral but volatility remains elevated. A break above 6650 would confirm bullish momentum, while a drop below 6550 would increase downside pressure.

In focus

• Foxconn (FXCOF) +29.7% revenue growth in Q1 driven by AI demand.
• Paramount (PSKY) negotiating $24bn financing for Warner Bros Discovery deal.
• DeepSeek preparing V4 model on Huawei chips, signaling reduced reliance on US semiconductors.
• Microsoft (MSFT) to invest $10bn in Japan AI infrastructure.
• Devon Energy (DVN) and Coterra Energy (CTRA) cleared for merger.
• Starbucks (SBUX) formed JV in China with Boyu Capital.

Market yesterday

April 2 ended mixed: S&P 500 +0.11%, NASDAQ 100 +0.11%, Russell 2000 +0.7%, Dow Jones -0.13%. Weekly performance remained positive. Tesla (-5.42%) lagged. Real estate (XLRE +1.61%) led gains, while consumer discretionary (XLY -1.5%) underperformed. WTI oil surged +11.4%, while gold (-2.8%) and silver (-4.2%) declined. Markets focused on Iran-related headlines and tariff announcements. Initial jobless claims fell to 202k, trade deficit improved, but layoffs rose according to Challenger data.

Company news

• Tesla deliveries -14% QoQ.
• Blue Owl Capital restricted redemptions in private credit funds.
• Rivian beat expectations.
• Lindsay disappointed.
• Acuity Brands mixed results.
• Estée Lauder in merger talks with Puig.