The US market: an overview and forecast for May 6. The technology rally continues

We expect

The dynamics of the upcoming session will primarily be driven by an improvement in the geopolitical backdrop and the continuation of the corporate earnings season. U.S. President Donald Trump announced the suspension of Project Freedom, which escorted commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, citing “significant progress” in negotiations with Iran toward a “comprehensive and final agreement.” At the same time, the blockade of the strait remains in place. Iran’s foreign minister is traveling to Beijing to meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, which the market also interprets as a signal of de-escalation. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that the ceasefire remains in effect. A key driver may become sustained demand for AI infrastructure. Strong earnings from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), released after market close yesterday, along with reports of a large long-term agreement between Anthropic and Google Cloud, create a dual catalyst for growth in the technology sector, semiconductor manufacturers, data center equipment suppliers, hyperscalers, and participants in the AI infrastructure supply chain. Positive sentiment is reinforced by AMD’s forecasts, which expect the CPU market to grow at a 35% CAGR, exceeding $120 billion by 2030. Given the significant weight of large-cap tech stocks in equity indices and the ongoing positive momentum in the semiconductor segment, we expect the news flow to drive capital inflows into relevant equities. A limiting factor remains the risk of profit-taking after prolonged rallies in certain stocks. In the macroeconomic calendar, the most important release will be ADP data on private sector employment for April (consensus: +120K, previous: +62K). This report serves as a guide ahead of the official U.S. Labor Department report due on May 8. Weekly MBA mortgage application data will also be released today (previous: −1.6%). Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak. Before the market opens, quarterly results will be reported by Uber Technologies (UBER), Walt Disney (DIS), EOG Resources (EOG), CVS Health (CVS), Marriott International (MAR), Apollo Global Management (APO), and Hut 8 Mining (HUT). After the close, AppLovin (APP), Coherent (COHR), Arm Holdings (ARM), IonQ (IONQ), DoorDash (DASH), CF Industries (CF), and Fortinet (FTNT) will report.

U.S. equity futures are showing moderately positive performance. We assess the risk balance for the upcoming session as positive with moderate volatility, supported by easing geopolitical tensions, a strong earnings season, and reinforced demand for AI infrastructure following AMD’s results. The 7240 level serves as support for the S&P 500; a break below it would signal weakening momentum and require a reassessment toward a neutral stance.

Premarket highlights

· Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares are up about 18% following strong earnings, with data center revenue rising 57% year-over-year to $5.8 billion. The company forecasts Q2 revenue of $11.2 billion versus consensus of $10.52 billion.

· Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares surged 19%, despite revenue of $10.24 billion falling short of the $12.33 billion forecast. Support came from management denying the need to restate financials amid allegations of illegal server rerouting.

· Alphabet (GOOGL) shares rose about 1.5% after reports of a $200 billion five-year deal with Anthropic.

· Arista Networks (ANET) shares dropped more than 10% despite beating expectations, reflecting elevated investor expectations.

· Flex (FLEX) shares gained around 19% as revenue rose 17% and EPS reached $0.93.

· Lumentum (LITE) shares declined about 2%, indicating that expectations were overly high despite strong revenue growth.