The US market: review and forecast for April 7. The Iranian deadline is in focus

We expect

News related to the US–Iran conflict remains the key driver of market dynamics ahead of Washington’s deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz (April 7, 20:00 ET). Earlier, the parties discussed a 45-day ceasefire, but Tehran insists on a more durable settlement. The US maintains a hard stance and emphasizes the final nature of the deadline. Market sentiment remains cautious. According to Polymarket, the probability of a US–Iran agreement is only 3%. Against this backdrop, oil prices continue to rise: Brent trades above $114 per barrel and WTI approaches $115. This increases inflation risks and limits equity upside. The base case scenario assumes a status quo in the Middle East, keeping a risk premium in oil and suppressing demand for risk assets. The focus of the upcoming session will be preliminary durable goods orders for February (consensus: -1.2%, January: 0%). Ex-transportation and defense orders are expected to rise by 0.5%. ADP employment data for the week ending March 21 will also be released, along with the New York Fed’s March inflation expectations (consensus: 3.5%). Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s speech will be closely watched for signals on monetary policy amid resilient labor markets and rising inflation risks.

S&P 500 futures are flat. The risk balance is neutral with elevated volatility. Key resistance stands at 6650, with a break above signaling stabilization. A move below 6550 would increase downside pressure.

In focus

· Broadcom (AVGO) +3% after a deal with Alphabet (GOOGL) to develop custom AI chips through 2030. It also expands cooperation with Anthropic, which will gain access to Google TPU compute starting 2027.

· Health insurers rallied premarket: Humana +10%+, UnitedHealth +7%, CVS and Elevance +5–6%, Centene and Molina +4% after higher-than-expected Medicare Advantage rate updates for 2027.

· Organogenesis Holdings (ORGO) surged ~40% after achieving its primary endpoint in the PuraPly study.

· Owlet (OWLT) +8% after strong preliminary Q1 results and a CEO return announcement.

Market yesterday

April 6 trading ended in positive territory. S&P 500 +0.44%, NASDAQ +0.61%, Dow Jones +0.36%, Russell 2000 +0.42%. Consumer defensive (XLP +0.94%) led gains, while materials (XLB -0.38%) lagged. Tech was mixed: Alphabet and Amazon gained, Tesla fell. ISM services eased to 54 (vs 54.9 expected), but price components hit a multi-year high. Strong labor data supported sentiment. Treasury yields declined slightly, supporting risk assets. 

Company news

· Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO +32.3%) agreed to be acquired by Neurocrine at $53/share (~$2.9bn, +34% premium).

· Encompass Health (EHC +8%) benefited from higher Medicare reimbursement.

· Lucid Group (LCID -6.3%) missed delivery expectations.

· Seagate (STX +5.6%) rose on strong data center demand.