The US market: review and forecast for April 8th. Bulls welcome the truce

We expect

Geopolitics continues to dominate market dynamics. A short-term positive impulse came from the two-week ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump agreed to delay strikes on Iranian infrastructure, while Iranian authorities confirmed readiness to ensure safe passage of vessels. This triggered a sharp decline in oil prices and a rally in equity futures. However, significant disagreements between the parties remain. Tehran previously demanded sanctions relief and war compensation. In practice, this could imply new transit fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing transport costs. As a result, elevated energy prices may persist for a longer period. Ultimately, limited achievement of military objectives may be considered an acceptable outcome for the US. As Bloomberg notes, the White House is under political and economic pressure and was forced to seek de-escalation. Meanwhile, reports of ongoing tensions in the Middle East highlight the fragility of the agreement. Today, investors will analyze the minutes of the March FOMC meeting. Markets expect further clarity on how the Fed assesses the recent energy shock and under what conditions it might consider rate hikes again. We believe the probability of new hawkish signals is low, given Jerome Powell’s recent calming remarks. S&P 500 futures are up 2.6%. Nikkei, Hang Seng and other APAC indices are also posting strong gains. The risk balance for the session is positive with elevated volatility due to the sharp decline in the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. However, after strong premarket gains, much of the optimism may already be priced in, limiting further upside. Technically, we expect a gap-up opening of more than 2%. Key support for the S&P 500 is at 6650 (200-day moving average), while resistance is at 6800. A sustained move above support confirms the bullish momentum.

In focus

Levi Strauss (LEVI) is up more than 8% premarket after strong Q1 results. Net income rose to $177m from $140m, and revenue increased 14% y/y to $1.74bn. FY2026 EPS guidance was raised to $1.42–1.48. Delta Air Lines (DAL) is up over 5%, and United Airlines (UAL) more than 7%, supported by lower oil prices reducing fuel costs. Carnival (CCL) is up about 6% in line with the broader travel & leisure sector. Nutanix (NTNX) gains ~2% after expanding its buyback program by $750m. Greenbrier (GBX) is down ~6% after weaker earnings and reduced guidance.

Market yesterday

April 7 trading ended near intraday highs. S&P 500 +0.08%, NASDAQ 100 +0.04%, Dow Jones +0.18%, Russell 2000 +0.17%. Buyers were supported by easing fears over escalation between the US and Iran and expected CTA inflows. Among the “Magnificent Seven”, Alphabet (+1.82%) led gains, while Apple (-2.07%) and Tesla (-1.75%) were under pressure. Energy (XLE +0.8%) led gains, while consumer staples (XLP -1.69%) lagged. Durable goods orders fell 1.4% m/m in February, but core components were stronger than expected. ADP data signaled labor market resilience, while NY Fed surveys showed rising inflation expectations.

Company news

Universal Music Group (UNVGY +13.9%) received a $64bn acquisition offer from Pershing Square.

Paramount Skydance (PSKY +10.7%) raised $24bn in financing for a Warner Bros. Discovery deal.

The Trade Desk (TTD -6.8%) saw executive departures.

Apple (AAPL -2.1%) faces delays in foldable iPhone development.

Artivion (AORT +5.3%) received FDA approval for a new vascular device.