The US market: review and forecast for April 9th. The truce is questionable

Our Expectations

Global news flow remains in focus for market participants. The recently reached U.S.–Iran ceasefire appears fragile. Tehran has accused the opposing side of violating several terms of the agreement, including continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon, a drone intrusion into its airspace, and refusal to recognize uranium enrichment rights. The U.S. side, however, insists that the ceasefire does not cover the Lebanon front and maintains a firm stance on Iran’s nuclear program. Additional uncertainty comes from developments around the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping remains restricted despite the formal agreement. Iran’s delegation is expected to arrive in Islamabad for talks scheduled on April 10, with negotiations to be held behind closed doors. President Donald Trump also stated that U.S. military presence in the region will remain until full compliance is achieved and that a larger-scale operation is possible if the deal collapses. For markets, this implies continued high sensitivity to headlines: any signs of ceasefire breakdown could trigger a new oil price spike and pressure risk assets, while confirmation of stability would support recovery. The key macro release on Thursday will be the February PCE inflation report. Consensus expects both headline and core PCE to rise by +0.4% m/m, though ~40% of analysts forecast a more moderate +0.2–0.3% m/m range. The model from Freedom Broker points to +0.27% for headline and +0.24% for core PCE.

Markets will also focus on personal income (+0.3% m/m consensus) and spending (+0.6% m/m consensus). Income may be supported by OBBBA-related compensations, with upside risk toward +0.4%. Spending forecasts are broadly aligned with strong retail sales data.

Final Q4 U.S. GDP estimate is also due and is expected to confirm +0.7% growth.

S&P 500 futures are slightly negative. The risk balance is neutral with elevated volatility. Key resistance is at 6,850, while support lies near 6,700.

In Focus

· Costco Wholesale – March net sales +11.3% y/y ($28.41bn).
· STAAR Surgical – shares +20% after preliminary results.
· Applied Digital – shares –5% despite strong earnings.
· Aehr Test Systems – under pressure after $60mn equity offering.
· ProQR Therapeutics – +4% after pipeline update.

Market Recap

April 8 session ended strongly higher:
S&P 500 +2.51%
NASDAQ-100 +2.9%
Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.85%
Russell 2000 +2.97%

The rally was driven by easing geopolitical fears and expectations of strong corporate earnings growth. Meta Platforms rose +6.5% on positive AI product announcements.