Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 ended the first quarter with an increase of 10.1%, updating historical highs 22 times. Nvidia turned out to be a bright growth leader, which added 82.5% during this time. META grew by 37.2%, but Apple lost 11%, Tesla almost 30%. In a report by the University of Michigan, the consumer confidence index in the United States unexpectedly increased to 79.4 points in March from 76.9 points a month earlier, helped by strong growth in the stock market and expectations that inflation will continue to decline. The US economy expanded by 3.4% YoY in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the final report of the US Department of Commerce. Earlier, a less significant rise was reported - by 3.2%. However, compared to the previous quarter, growth slowed to 4.9%. The US market and a number of other leading exchanges will be closed today. Recall that important data for the inflationary positioning of the market will be published today - personal income and expenses of US citizens (PCE deflator). At the same time, the market will have to win back the macro news data on Monday. Jerome Powell and Mary Daly are also scheduled to perform today. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 continued its series of gains from moderate sessions. The DAX declined by 0.4%, the FTSE 100 rose by 0.3%. In Asia, only domestic Chinese is operating among the leading markets, where the CSI 300 index is growing by 0.3%. Oil has grown well and has almost recovered from the losses of the last 9 calendar days.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year-olds was almost unchanged yesterday. However, bonds in emerging markets declined, which showed good growth the day before yesterday.
The KASE index. KASE showed exactly yesterday's session that it continued to grow after a short pause. Judging by the 0.4% increase in the index at the beginning of the trading session, it may return to a long series of growth again. However, we believe that the sessions will be more modest in terms of daily growth than in the first quarter, and also do not forget about the beginning of the dividend season in about a month.
Index shares. Yesterday's session passed without noticeable volatility. The shares closed with a relatively flat result, with no strong rise or fall in individual stocks. Trading was busier on the LSE and NYSE. ADS Kaspi increased by 2.2% and continues its rally. In the case of another growth session (already on Monday), the quotes will break the downward divergence of the 4-hour chart, which will be a sign of the strength of the trend. Nevertheless, we will leave the local “hold” recommendation for now. Quotes are growing by 2.2% with the opening of trading. Kazatomprom grew by 3.9% and it can be said that it pushed off from the trend line again. We expect that the quotes will finally show a more significant rebound from the support levels, as this corresponds to the technical picture and the latest positive report of the company.
Currency. In the morning, the dollar weakens against the tenge to the level of 447. As we noted yesterday, this picture is quite normal for the current dynamics of the USDKZT. However, if it goes below 445 tenge, this will cause changes in the technical picture of dollar quotes. Key market news (=) AIRA: Air Astana does not plan to pay dividends for 2024