Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 lost 0.65% on Friday. Thanks to the “triple witching hour”, which closes large volumes of futures and options (5.3 trillion USD), the session turned out to be volatile. Trading volumes were 60% above the 3-month average. Technology sector stocks, in particular software manufacturers, performed the worst. JPMorgan economists have changed their forecast for a reduction in the Fed's monetary policy rates throughout 2024 to 75 basis points. Previously, they had expected a total of 125 basis points. According to Bank of America, investors are ignoring mixed economic data, sending record flows into U.S. stocks. U.S. equity funds received $56 billion in the week to March 13. Shares of technology companies showed the largest inflow among the sectors — $6.8 billion, recovering from a record outflow. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 shows the second session of decline in a row. The German DAX and the British FTSE 100 also stagnated. In Asia, Chinese indices show a slight increase. China is reported to have reported better-than-expected industrial output and growth in fixed asset investment. This weekend, top officials promised "appropriate" budget spending and greater support for the electric vehicle industry. Of the commodities, copper is growing noticeably and is at its highest in 11 months. After a rather protracted decline, uranium futures rose by 2.6%.
Bonds. U.S. government bond yields remained almost unchanged on Friday as they hit resistance levels.
The KASE index. KASE grew by 0.4%, which would seem to be a good result, but the chart shows that the quotes cannot yet gain a foothold at levels above 5000 points.
Index shares. Kaspi continued its confident movement on KASE. On the LSE, the quotes rose at the beginning of the session, but declined at the end of it. Recall that on March 25th, the GDR on the LSE will be delisted and trading will continue on the NYSE. The clients' securities will be automatically transferred to the stock exchange in the USA. Kazatomprom's GDR increased by 4%, which was facilitated by the reporting, which we can call successful. The Air Astana report looks neutral in advance, but we can provide a full assessment only after the end of the quiet period, that is, after the holidays. The report of the National Bank was published this morning, and the publication of the results of Kazakhtelecom is also possible. Kcell and BCC had a move without corporate events, which lost 2.1% and 1.2%, respectively. Kaztransoil is slowly declining after rising on March 7.
Currency. In the foreign exchange market, without strong changes, the tenge is held under the resistance level of the 50-day average on the USDKZT chart.
Key market news
(=) HSBK: The audit report on the consolidated financial statements of JSC Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan for 2023 has been published (+) KZAP: Financial results of JSC NAC Kazatomprom for 2023