Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose yesterday, but did not update new historical highs. The focus yesterday was on Powell's speech, who told the House committee that he was in no hurry to cut rates, although it would probably be appropriate "at some point this year." The very fact that the chairman sees at least one decline in 2024 has supported the market. He also said that U.S. regulators are likely to make "broad and significant" changes to plans requiring large banks to hold more capital, which is assessed favorably for large banks. Neel Kashkari said he expects the central bank to cut interest rates twice — or perhaps only once — in 2024. The JOLTS report showed that the number of vacancies in the United States remained high in January. Meanwhile, companies increased recruitment at a moderate pace in February: according to ADP, the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 140,000, although it lags behind estimates. In today's report on the number of applications for benefits, a figure of 217,000 is expected. In Europe, the indices rose by 0.4-06%. The ECB's decision on the rate will be made today, it is expected that it will remain unchanged, but Lagarde will begin to prepare the ground for a reduction. In Asia, the morning begins with a decline, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices falling by 1%. Oil remains in a sideways trend, although it rose by 1% yesterday. According to the EIA, crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 1.37 million barrels last week.
Bonds. The US 10-year yield declined once again, but was restrained by the 50-day moving average. Corporate bonds rose by 0.2-0.4%.
The KASE index. KASE added 0.6%. 2 shares in the index showed an increase of 4% or higher, while the rest of the securities were mostly neutral. The opening of trading today is taking place with the growth of almost all securities. Over the past 26 trading sessions, only 3 showed a decrease, and relatively insignificant ones. The current growth is similar to the one that KASE had from July to November 2016 and from June to September 2017. In those years, the index could grow 20-30% in one big wave of growth.
Index shares. BCC grew by another 4.5% yesterday. Kcell showed a 4% jump. Due to these two securities, the KASE index is approaching the 5000 point mark. Due to its explosive growth, CCBN securities now have an index share of 8.2%, and Kcell 12.7%. 1.9% lost yesterday Kaspi.kz The LSE session was generally calm, but not for Air Astana – the airline's GDR increased by 3.8%. At the same time, it is worth noting that the paper has a rather volatile dynamics – the last 2 sessions of the daily candles show large price swings. This may be due to the expectation of the company's first report after the IPO – Air Astana will present financial results for 2023 on March 15. On the same day, she will hold a conference call at 15:00.
Currency. The USDKZT continues to move inside the triangle – the formation was confirmed after the dollar failed to move above local resistance levels. This means that the current pattern of lateral movement may last until the third decade of March.
Key market news
(=) AIRA: Air Astana JSC has provided notification of the publication of results for 2023