Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 rose 0.9% on Friday. The market was supported by a pullback in oil: Brent fell 3.1% to $104.3 per barrel amid expectations of talks on restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y, in line with forecasts. Core CPI added 0.3% m/m versus expectations of 0.2%, although annual core inflation slowed from 2.5% to 2.4%. In this case, the report had a moderately positive impact on markets, as it was “not as bad as it could have been.” The probability of a rate hike this week reached about 87%. The 10-year government bond yield came as close as possible to the 5% level. European indices recovered by 0.4–0.8% on Friday, but over the weekend the external backdrop deteriorated again. After an attack, operations of the Saudi East–West oil pipeline were halted, which allows oil exports bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Supplies equivalent to about 4% of global supply were put at risk. The planned meeting of Gulf countries with Iran on shipping was postponed. Thus, the diplomatic expectations that supported the market on Friday have not yet been met. This morning Brent is trading again around $108 per barrel. In Asia, the Kospi is down 3.2%. U.S. futures are down 0.5%.
KASE Index. KASE fell noticeably by 1.6% on Friday, ending the session at the day’s low. Quotes failed to hold above 8,000 points and broke the support level around 7,960 points, which at first glance worsens the market’s technical picture. Nevertheless, the market still has a “plan B”: on the logarithmic chart, quotes dropped to an important trend line connecting the November 2025 low and the July low of this year, which creates medium-term support for the index. In addition, local support is located around 7,850 points. A weak external backdrop still argues against this scenario.
Index constituents. The fact that the main market “anchors,” Kaspi and Kazatomprom, did not show a comparable significant decline on Western venues also supports the case for a possible rise in stocks today. Kaspi even rose 2.8%, ending up about 2% more expensive than the shares on KASE. At the same time, the quotes reclaimed important local technical levels: the rebound came off the 50-day moving average and one of the Fibonacci levels. Kazatomprom looks weaker, since the 50-day moving average failed to support the quotes; however, from a technical perspective this is not yet critical, as the shares are only approaching the lower boundary of the sideways channel. It is also worth noting that the sector ETFs URA and URNM lost noticeably more on Friday, and their technical picture looks worse. As for the FX-adjusted price gap, at Friday’s close it was virtually absent. Solidcore shares showed a strong move against the market and, it seems, are not ориентируются on the buyback offer price at $11.6 and continue to rise.
FX. USDKZT is trading at 449.4 tenge at the moment, although the daily candle shows that in the morning quotes tried to закрепиться above 455.4 tenge, but unsuccessfully.