Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 declined by 0.4% after recently reaching new highs. The main trigger for the pullback was again rising oil prices and instability in the Persian Gulf — Brent climbed to $114.7 despite the U.S. denying a report by Iran’s Fars agency about two missiles hitting an American military vessel. Earlier, Trump stated that the U.S. would begin sending neutral ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the UAE accused Iran of a drone strike that caused a fire at the port of Fujairah and, for the first time since the truce between Washington and Tehran, reported a drone attack on an Adnoc vessel. At the same time, Trump also announced plans to reduce the U.S. military presence in Germany by more than 5,000 troops, as previously stated. OPEC+ agreed to increase June quotas by 188,000 barrels per day, which is largely symbolic, as actual supply will depend on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 4.45%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 and DAX indices fell by 1–1.2%. This morning, among major Asian markets, only Hang Seng is trading, down 0.9%. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, S&P 500 futures are up 0.2%. Oil is trading at $113.4.
KASE Index. The KASE index closed neutral yesterday. The daily candle showed price fluctuations up to nearly 7,900 points. Trading volumes continued to decline gradually, reflecting persistent market uncertainty.
Index stocks. The formation of shadows on the KASE daily candle may have been driven by volatility in shares of Halyk Bank, Kcell, Kaspi, and particularly Kazatomprom. KZAP quotes on the local market rose to 41,700 tenge yesterday, testing the local resistance level at 41,600 tenge. However, the test failed, and prices pulled back to more neutral levels. Notably, despite the rise in GDRs on the LSE last week, there is still no significant FX spread relative to local shares. The biggest gainers yesterday were Halyk Bank shares, while KazMunayGas showed the largest decline. At today’s open, prices remain neutral with no clear leaders. We also highlight the strong performance of Solidcore (CORE), which rose 2.3% on AIX yesterday. We had previously issued a short-term buy recommendation on the stock but later reverted to a neutral stance due to weak gold price dynamics. Nevertheless, investor interest remains elevated, likely supporting the stock. Today, AIX quotes may test highs at $8.16.
Currency. The dollar is rising today and is set to test the 466.1 tenge level. However, resistance levels remain significant — in addition to local levels, proximity to a broader downward trend persists.