External background. The S&P 500 showed very good growth yesterday, which allowed it to reach new historical highs. The technology sector was again among the growth leaders. Nvidia grew by 5.2%, after raising estimates from investment banks. The nearest “neighbors" also showed explosive growth – Broadcom added 6.2%, Micron 5.6%, Qualcomm and AMD 3.7-3.8% each. Yesterday, ADP data on private sector employment was released. The report showed that the recruitment of employees in companies amounted to 152,000 in May against 173,000 a month earlier, which is the slowest growth rate since the beginning of the year. Recall that ADP is inferior in importance, from the point of view of investor perception, to Friday's Non-farm payrolls report, however, repeated signals about the cooling of the labor market inspire more and more confidence that the final report will also show reduced figures. Now traders in the market are very confident about 2 rate cuts in 2024 – in November and with a slightly lower probability in December. In Europe, the indices also rose, but could not overcome the value of 1%. The Stoxx 600 added 0.8%, and the DAX 0.93%. In Asia, trading opens moderately positively. Yesterday's session went well for commodities, which were finally able to show growth. Oil rebounded from the support level of the February lows, and copper from its 50-day moving average.
Bonds. The yield of 10-year US bonds continued to decline – for the 5th consecutive session, and broke down its 200-day moving average. Corporate bonds have finally started to show more vigorous growth.
The KASE index. KASE showed another neutral session. We see that a triangle is forming on the chart of the KASE index – a consolidation figure that corresponds to the end of the dividend cutoffs and the start of the summer lull. We are inclined to believe that the seasonal characteristics of the market will be preserved, the sideways trend will remain until mid-June, after which the KASE index will return to the level of 5,120 points and will then be able to update the highs.
Index shares. The volatility of stocks yesterday was quite limited. Only BCC and Kaspi showed a price deviation of more than 1%. CCBN shares have resistance at the 1850 mark, however, we are inclined to believe that in the local future the securities will be able to approach the round mark of 2000 tenge. Kaspi decreased by 1.1%, but it is worth mentioning that NYSE ADS were able to show an increase of 1.6%. Shares on both KASE and NYSE now have almost identical currency values. Kazatomprom rose 1.1% after touching its 200-day moving average. We expect that the securities will sink a little more locally, after which they will become interesting to buy.
Currency. Yesterday, the dollar only slightly missed our local target of 449 tenge, reaching 448.93. After that, the tenge began to strengthen, which continues today. At the moment, the USDKZT pair is falling to 446.88. This suggests that the US currency could not immediately overcome 3 resistance levels at once, overcoming only the 2 – 50-day average and inclined trend line. Nevertheless, in our opinion, the risks of tenge weakening to 455 in June are still high.
Key market news
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