Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 index closed Friday’s trading session in neutral territory. The monthly U.S. labor market report, usually published on the first Friday of each month, was postponed this time due to a temporary government shutdown. In the absence of official data, investors are relying on indirect indicators released earlier last week (JOLTS, ADP, and unemployment claims), which showed signs of labor market weakening. The hype around AI has cooled, slowing the rally in tech stocks. In Europe, the situation was somewhat better, with the Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 indices both rising. This morning, Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged strongly in Asian markets after Sanae Takaichi, a proponent of economic stimulus, won the vote to become the country’s next prime minister.
Commodity markets also saw movement: oil rose by 1.6% after OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day next month, easing traders’ concerns about a more substantial hike. Copper jumped 3.2%, while gold neared $4,000 on Friday following news of a collapse at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine — the world’s largest gold and third-largest copper producer. Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $125,000 mark.
S&P 500 futures are up 0.25%, which could help U.S. markets reach new highs at the open.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose at the end of the week after two consecutive sessions of decline.
KASE index. The KASE index fell 0.4% on Friday. There still appears to be insufficient buying power for the index to consolidate above recently broken resistance levels. Two consecutive declines brought KASE back within its previous sideways trend. During the trading day, prices dropped to 7,048 points (–2%) due to a brief dip in KMG shares but later recovered.
Index components. The main pressure on the index came from Kazatomprom and Kaspi shares. Kazatomprom GDRs on the London Stock Exchange have been consolidating for three consecutive sessions, and with the tenge strengthening, this likely adds local pressure on KASE quotations. As for Kaspi, its shares remain in a downtrend on the local market. The situation on Nasdaq is similar, despite a 1.1% increase in shares on Friday. It is worth noting that shares fell before the Q2 report and then rallied actively afterward. With about two weeks left before the next report, prices are showing a similar dynamic.
The third-largest decline on Friday was in Air Astana shares, which failed to break resistance levels and dropped to 820 tenge at today’s opening session. At the opening today, the index is up 0.35%, supported by gains in Kaspi (+1.4%) and Kcell (+1%).
Currency. The U.S. dollar continues to weaken gradually against the tenge. This morning, USDKZT is trading at 546.1, marking the tenge’s fourth consecutive session of strengthening. Rising oil prices may support the national currency today.