Our comments and expectations
External Background. Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed down by 0.16%. However, the daily chart shows that further decline was halted by the 50-day moving average, followed by a slight price rebound. There were no clear market outliers except for the energy sector. The corresponding ETF, XLE (SPDR Energy Select Fund), fell by 1.4%. Another set of economic data, the JOLTS report (U.S. job openings), came in below expectations. As of the last working day of July, there were 7.67 million job openings, compared to the expected 8.1 million, and 7.9 million in June. Given the nervous market reactions to this week's reports, the Friday jobs report is now expected to determine how significant the first Fed rate cut will be—25 or 50 basis points. Swap traders are pricing in a 100% chance of a 0.25% rate cut and a 30% chance of a 0.5% cut. In Europe, the leading indices saw a sharper decline. The Stoxx 600 lost 1%, and the DAX fell by 0.8%. This morning, Asian markets are trading moderately lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 posting the largest loss at 1%. S&P 500 futures are nearly neutral. Oil is trading at $72.9, while gold is up 0.3%.
Bonds. The yield on U.S. 10-year treasuries continued to decline yesterday, reaching its lowest point since August 5. Notably, investors did not flee high-risk bonds—ETF HYG, which tracks U.S. non-investment-grade bonds, rose by 0.4%.
KASE Index. The KASE index's current wave of continuous declines has now reached six sessions. Prices are hovering around levels seen from mid to late July.
Index Stocks. There were two standout underperformers on the market yesterday: Kaspi, which lost 1.6%, and Bank CenterCredit (BCC), with a similar result. Overall, looking at the CCBN chart, prices are still in a sideways trend. However, Kaspi broke out of this trend over the last two trading sessions, although its NYSE listing remained stable and even showed growth yesterday. Kazatomprom continues to look stable despite the price pullback on August 28. Today, it is quite possible that the local market could end its six-day correction streak.
Currency. The U.S. dollar continues to rise against the tenge, but at a slow pace. This morning, the USDKZT pair is trading at 482.9 on Forex. Meanwhile, the dollar index (DXY) fell by 0.5% yesterday.