Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. U.S. indices ended Tuesday with a slight decline: the S&P 500 lost 0.2%, the Dow 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. The debt market continued to weigh on sentiment: the yield on 30-year Treasuries climbed to a 24-year high, while the 10-year remains above 5.2%. Macro data came in weak: the consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since 2014. The market recouped part of its losses after comments from New York Fed President John Williams that the Fed may wait until December for another rate hike, although futures are pricing in such a move as early as October. Attention in the AI sector was drawn by a Reuters report on a leaked IPO prospectus for Anthropic, which is targeting a valuation of about $2 trillion. Oil fell 2.6%, with Brent closing around $102.6. Prices declined on signs of an export recovery from the Middle East, including via a Saudi oil pipeline, and on reports of releases from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 dipped 0.1%: gains in tech on AI optimism failed to offset pressure from high yields, while energy companies underperformed more sharply. This morning, Asian markets are mostly higher on lower oil: the Nikkei is up more than 2%, the Shanghai Composite is rising after China’s official PMIs came out above 50, and the Hang Seng is also showing a slight gain. Brent is holding just below $103, while S&P futures are up 0.2%.
KASE Index. KASE closed yesterday with a notable 0.9% gain, largely thanks to Kazatomprom and Kaspi shares. The index moved back above local trend support and has some chances for further growth.
Index constituents. Kazatomprom shares posted the strongest gain yesterday, up 2.3%, again noticeably exceeding the GDR price. The price gap widened to 3.1% in favor of KASE. Most likely, Monday’s drop was a one-off event due to weak liquidity. The stronger U.S. dollar this morning should support the company’s quotes. Kaspi shares also rose 2%, catching up with the solid rise in the ADS on Monday. Yesterday, the ADS on Nasdaq traded volatile but ultimately finished the day slightly down. KazTransOil also showed strong performance, up 1.9%. The stock may be able to continue the growth wave that began in late August. Among company news, we note that Germany intends to increase oil imports from Kazakhstan. This is positive for KazTransOil, as these supplies partially go through the company’s pipelines and then in transit via Russia. KazMunayGas and Halyk Bank shares also posted decent gains: 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively. Halyk Bank GDRs, despite a slight decline yesterday, still have fairly good chances for further growth. Gold’s 3% drop on Monday did not prevent Solidcore shares from rising 0.4% and once again moving closer to the highs at $13.
Currency. USDKZT fell 0.2% yesterday, to 438.90. Having reached our target of 439–440 tenge, the rate is showing an increase this morning to 441.8. Nevertheless, for more pronounced growth the pair needs to move above 444 tenge.