Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. Markets yesterday demonstrated resilience to geopolitics, posting gains despite reciprocal strikes by the U.S. and Iran. Nasdaq added 1.3%, the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, the Dow Jones climbed 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 gained more than 1%. One of the reasons was oil, which fell sharply yesterday after a recent rebound amid the continued passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Following oil, government bond yields also declined, which supported the financial sector, where Goldman Sachs and American Express added about 2.5-3%. Another factor was the return of demand for semiconductors: SK Hynix placed ADRs in an IPO, raising about $26.5 bn with the book more than seven times oversubscribed. The sector semiconductor index jumped more than 5%, while Micron and Sandisk rose 5-8%. Initial jobless claims fell to 215 thousand, coming in below the forecast and at the lowest level since late May. In Europe, indices also bounced: the Stoxx 600 rose 0.8%. This morning, the chip rally continues in Asia: Korea’s Kospi is up more than 5%, Japan’s Nikkei is adding about 1.7%, and SoftBank jumped roughly 12%. The yen is holding near a forty-year low amid expectations of possible intervention by Tokyo.
KASE Index. The KASE Index on Thursday edged down 0.1%. Overall, the day was not as active as the previous ones; only three stocks in the index showed a final move of 0.5-0.6%. The scenario of a retest of the local horizontal support at 7,550 points remains in place.
Index stocks. The biggest decline yesterday was in BCC shares (-0.6%). Quotes came as close as possible to an important medium-term horizontal support. If the price stays below 4,500 tenge for at least a couple of days, further downside toward 4,100 tenge per share can be expected. Kaspi shares also showed a noticeable decline yesterday (-0.5%). Further weakening of the dollar and the previous drop in ADR prices were factors behind the decline. Nevertheless, Nasdaq quotes rose 1.3% yesterday, and this may already have a positive impact on KASE shares today. Among the leaders, we note Air Astana shares up 0.5% and Halyk Bank up 0.4%. For the airline’s shares, we continue to expect a test of the 670 tenge level. Halyk Bank GDRs rose 0.6% and continue to maintain the likelihood of a bounce scenario from key levels. Kazatomprom on the LSE rebounded 3.3% and returned above key levels. For further growth, it needs to break through the $72 level. We also note a significant rise in Solidcore shares on the AIX (+3.3%), likely amid a 1.1% increase in gold prices.
Currency. USDKZT continued to decline yesterday and reached 466.15 tenge. The scenario of another local downward wave to 464 tenge is playing out, where support for the dollar can be expected. The cross rate RUBKZT remains at 6.1 tenge.