Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% on Friday, marking its first increase after three consecutive sessions of decline. On Friday, the report on U.S. personal consumption expenditures was released, which was in line with expectations, calming investors after a drop in consumer sentiment. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% in August compared to 0.3% in July. On an annual basis, the core measure remained at 2.9%, above the Federal Reserve’s target. Meanwhile, the risk of a U.S. government shutdown looms in the near term (October 1), prompting Trump to meet with four top congressional officials at the White House today. In the event of a shutdown, the U.S. will continue collecting tariffs and enforcing immigration policy but will not release the September employment report on Friday. This morning, the Hang Seng index is up 1.3%, while the Nikkei 225 is down 0.9%. S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.3%. Profits of Chinese industrial companies increased by 20.4% in August compared to last year after several months of decline. Oil prices reached $69.9 per barrel on Friday but retreated following news that OPEC+ may increase November supply by 137,000 barrels per day. Additionally, Iraq resumed oil exports from its northern region after more than a two-year hiatus.
Bonds. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries continue to rise, reaching the highest level since September 4. Emerging market corporate bonds have declined for the third consecutive session.
KASE Index. The KASE index closed Friday’s session modestly with a small final deviation. Overall, the market has remained in a sideways trend since early September. During the session, prices fluctuated, leaving a shadow on the daily candlestick. Trading volumes fell to their lowest levels since August 1.
Index Stocks. The largest drop on Friday was seen in BCC shares, which corrected after a recovery attempt. Other index stocks showed moderate movements, not corresponding to the shadows on KASE’s daily candlestick. Air Astana shares showed interesting movement, rising for the fourth consecutive session. However, it is worth remembering that these shares often show wave-like movements, and until key resistance levels, such as 835 KZT, are broken, it is too early to look at higher values. KEGOC shares are also showing interesting growth as the Annual General Meeting approaches and dividends for the first half of 2025 are paid. With the dollar rising, investors may again pay attention to KMG shares.
Currency. After several tests, the dollar broke the 543–544 resistance level on the USDKZT chart and today reaches 548.7 KZT. In this case, the psychological resistance level is 550 KZT per dollar.