Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The U.S. market showed a solid rally yesterday, with major indices gaining between 1.8% and 2.5%. The S&P 500 rose by 2.05%, recovering losses from the previous three sessions. The trigger was macroeconomic data — the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for May jumped to 98 points, beating expectations of 87 and April’s reading of 85.7. This marked the largest monthly increase in four years. In addition, the U.S. and the European Union accelerated trade negotiations, and Donald Trump stated he was encouraged by the EU initiative despite his recent warning about potential 50% tariffs. In Europe, indices showed more moderate growth, while Germany’s DAX updated its all-time high. This morning, futures on European indices are down 0.1%, showing similar dynamics to the S&P 500 E-mini futures. Asian markets are trading mixed: Hang Seng is down 0.6%, Nikkei 225 is flat, and Kospi is up 1.25%. Commodity markets came under pressure yesterday due to the strengthening dollar. Today, Brent crude is trading at $63.6 per barrel, and copper is pulling back after the May 23 spike.
Bonds. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries are declining for the third consecutive session, while corporate bonds are showing gains. However, global government bond markets are seeing a rise in yields this morning following a weak auction of Japan’s 40-year bonds.
KASE Index. Yesterday’s session was calm and ended around the same levels it started. The index remains in the middle of a prolonged and broad sideways trend that has persisted since early 2025.
Index Stocks. The top gainer yesterday was Bank CenterCredit, whose shares rose by 1.6%. However, this was not the session high — prices had climbed to 3,167 tenge at the opening. The failure to hold intraday highs may signal a weakening of the current growth wave. Furthermore, today at the session open, the stock is up only 0.1%, which supports this assumption. On the LSE and Nasdaq, Kaspi and Kazatomprom both posted gains yesterday. In the case of KSPI, we observed another rebound from the $80.5 support level, which opens up a short-term upside potential of 4–5% toward the 50-day moving average. As for Kazatomprom, we are cautious due to the instability of daily candlesticks and increased intraday volatility in its GDRs, despite the continued slow rise in uranium prices, which reached $71.8 per pound yesterday. Halyk Bank’s shares on the LSE are testing the support level at $23.5.
Currency. The USDKZT exchange rate is climbing above its 50-day moving average this morning, which may signal the beginning of the seasonal summer weakening of the tenge following the end of the May tax period. The DXY dollar index rebounded and rose yesterday after bouncing off the 98.9 level. The USDRUB pair is trading slightly above the 80 mark.