Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.23%, once again setting new all-time highs. Although most stocks in the index declined, the benchmark closed higher thanks to strong gains in Nvidia, Broadcom, and Microsoft. Nvidia announced a series of new partnerships after Jensen Huang dismissed concerns about a potential “AI bubble.” Microsoft signed a new agreement that grants it a 27% stake in OpenAI, valued at around $135 billion.
Today and tomorrow, five of the largest tech companies — accounting for 25% of the S&P 500’s total weight — are set to report earnings. The Federal Reserve meeting is expected today, with markets anticipating a 0.25% rate cut and possibly an announcement on ending quantitative tightening. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer confidence has declined for the third consecutive month.
Asian markets are showing positive momentum this morning: Chinese, Japanese, and Korean indices are up by 1.2–2.2%. Oil prices have dipped slightly below $64 per barrel, while S&P 500 futures are adding another 0.26%.
Bonds. Conditions in the bond market remain largely unchanged. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries stands at 3.98%.
KASE Index. KASE rose 0.25% yesterday. On one hand, the local market stabilized and conditions improved; on the other, most stocks still show little upward momentum. The current leaders are mainly those recovering earlier losses rather than driving a new rally.
Index Stocks. Kaspi.kz shares showed the strongest growth yesterday. While they look technically attractive on the local exchange, ADS on the U.S. market fell 2.4%, returning to its consolidation levels. The chances of continued growth remain, as prices stay above key support levels, though maintaining upward momentum would be the more favorable scenario.
Kazatomprom rose 2% on KASE and 5% on the LSE. Uranium ETFs also surged: URA jumped 8.4%, and URNM 10%. The main news of the day was the U.S. government’s announcement of an $80 billion plan to build nuclear reactors.
Additionally, the Trump administration stated its intention to purchase reactors from Westinghouse Electric (partially owned by Cameco) to meet growing electricity demand from data centers. Cameco shares soared 23.4% on the NYSE.
Other stocks traded moderately lower under broad market pressure. This morning, the market shows a similar trend — the KASE index is supported by Kazatomprom, which is up another 2.2%.
Currency. The tenge has strengthened for the second consecutive session, with the USDKZT rate falling to 531.75. The backdrop for the national currency remains positive, supported by a high base rate and expectations of stronger government measures to combat inflation next year.