External background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.27% yesterday, which is slightly better than the previous result. The main positive moment was the successful auction of US Treasury bonds for $39 billion the day before the publication of inflation data. According to a survey by 22V Research, 63% of investors believe that the Fed will first cut (this year) due to a soft landing and that inflation is on a favorable path for the Fed to below 3%. At the same time, a number of Fed officials have said in recent weeks that they see no rush to cut rates as inflation becomes more stable. Recall that data on the consumer price index will be released before the market opens at 08:30 US eastern time (17:30 Astana time), and the Fed's press conference is scheduled for 14:00 (23:00 Astana time). Recall that Citigroup states that investors should be prepared for high market volatility with a 1.25% swing in either direction after one of the two mentioned events. Of the individual companies, Apple can again be noted, which grew by 7.3% yesterday after falling by 1.9% the day before. Meanwhile, in Europe, indices declined, the Stoxx 600 lost almost 1%, and the German DAX began testing its 50-day average, from which it started up 2 times in April. In Asian markets, the Hang Seng is also testing its 50-day average, down 1.2%. According to the data, consumer price growth in China held above zero in May, while selling prices remained in a deflationary state, which reinforces concerns about persistently weak demand.
Bonds. The US 10-year yield declined after approaching its resistance levels. It is reported that demand at the auction for 10-year treasuries was high, with a demand and coverage ratio of 2.67x and the highest since February 2022.
The KASE index. KASE dropped 0.5% yesterday, for the second day in a row. In general, the trading session looked moderately negative, almost all stocks turned out to be in a small, but still negative. In the technical picture, the sideways trend still persists, but yesterday's decline left a slight hint of the possibility of going down.
Index shares. Kazakhtelecom had the largest growth yesterday and amounted to only 0.2%. It is difficult to say which factor put pressure on the market. The probability that the weakening of the tenge had an effect is excluded, since it was KMG and Kazatomprom exporters who turned out to be the leaders of the decline. On the other hand, the news came out that Kazakhstan recognized the overproduction of oil in May by 45 thousand barrels per day and undertakes to carry out voluntary reductions. Halyk Bank's GDR decreased by 2.5% on the LSE, but has been growing by the same amount since the market opened. Kazatomprom is slowly declining along with uranium quotations and seems to be aiming for the level of $37.8 if it does not show growth in the next couple of sessions.
Currency. The dollar rose to 451 tenge yesterday. This is a breakdown of the resistance level of 449 tenge and a direct signal to rise to the next level at around 455 tenge. At the moment on KASE, the last USDKZT transaction was quoted at 452.1.
Key market news
(=) AIRA: Air Astana JSC provided information on transactions with its own securities from 04 to 10 June