Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 closed flat yesterday as attention was focused on major companies’ earnings releases after the market close. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, reported cloud-services revenue that significantly beat expectations and said the unit’s backlog of signed contracts grew to more than $500 billion. In post-market trading, the shares initially rose, but as of now the stock is down 3.3% on the announcement of massive capital expenditure plans totaling $205 bn. Tesla’s earnings missed forecasts, and the stock fell 4.1% after the close. During the regular session, however, the market was so concentrated on earnings that it ignored another 4.2% jump in oil amid weak prospects for a peace agreement in the Persian Gulf in the near term. Today, Brent is already trading at $96.5 per barrel. Trump said Iran is “suffering greatly” after the deaths of four US service members last week, but is not yet ready to sign an agreement. Despite the flat equity market, the bond market did respond to rising oil: the yield on 10-year US Treasuries is rising for a third consecutive session and is now at its highest since May 19, which in turn is the highest since January 2025. According to money-market participants, the probability of a rate hike by the central bank is about 30%, while the probability of keeping it unchanged is 70%. Morning sentiment in Asia is positive: we note the Kospi up 4.4% and an attempt to break the downtrend. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3%.
KASE Index. KASE posted a modest gain yesterday, driven by a rise in our GDRs and KazMunayGas shares. Today, trading opens lower amid a stronger tenge and dividend cut-offs.
Index stocks. Yesterday, Kaspi and Kazatomprom rose 0.9–1% on the back of their previous positive performance in Western markets. Meanwhile, on Nasdaq, Kaspi shares fell 2% yesterday but overall remained in a sideways consolidation. Kazatomprom gained 1.3%, but that was not enough to hold above the 200-day moving average. Today on KASE, KZAP became the main laggard, down 3.8% intraday due to the July 27 dividend record date. In addition, the strengthening tenge is currently weighing on the company’s shares: yesterday the dollar rate fell to 467 tenge, and today it continues to move toward 465.2 tenge. Most likely, the national currency’s strengthening today is driven by another wave of oil price gains, despite the fact that national companies are no longer required to convert half of their FX revenues and may start accumulating dollar cash. At the same time, KMG shares are not rising today and remain in a sideways consolidation. Only Kcell shares are in the green.
Currency. The dollar is attempting to move below the previous low of 465.9 tenge today. During trading, USDKZT reaches 465.8 tenge — the lowest since May. Recall that a support level is still located near current values.