Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose by 0.74%. The U.S. market ended the week on a positive note: the main index gained 4.6%, and the Nasdaq increased by 6.4%. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer sentiment fell to one of the lowest levels in history, while long-term inflation expectations rose to their highest since 1991 amid concerns about the economic impact of tariffs. According to the latest Bloomberg survey, economists now estimate the probability of a U.S. recession within the next year at 45%. In terms of trade negotiations, there are reports that China may suspend its 125% tariff on some U.S. goods to reduce the costs of the trade war. On the other hand, Chinese authorities are downplaying the significance of any progress, stating that no tariff negotiations are currently underway. Trump said he expects to sign trade agreements with countries seeking to lower tariffs within the next three to four weeks.
In Europe, markets also showed slight gains on Friday. Today’s futures point to modest growth: the Stoxx 600 is up by 0.14%, and the DAX by 0.1%. In the UK, retail sales unexpectedly rose for the third month in a row in March. In Asia this morning, among the major indices, only the Nikkei 225 is showing gains, rising by 0.4%. Oil is trading near $66 per barrel. OPEC+ plans to adjust its crude oil output decisions to stabilize the market. S&P 500 futures are down by 0.4%.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries declined to 4.26%, the lowest level since April 8. Corporate bonds are rising both in the U.S. and in emerging markets.
KASE Index. The KASE index showed strong growth on Friday. Prices continued to recover all April losses and are now approaching monthly highs. However, considering that the first ex-dividend dates are approaching, the April highs may act as strong resistance levels.
Index Stocks. On Friday, shares of Kazatomprom and Halyk Bank performed well. On the LSE, HSBK shares surged by 4.3%, rebounding off the 50-day moving average. Nevertheless, it’s important to note that May 5 is the record date for dividends, and with May 1 being a holiday, the dividend gap may occur as early as April 30. Also, HSBK has a relatively high dividend yield, meaning the stock could lose about 10% in the first three sessions of the gap. On Friday, BCC rose by 1.2%, but today’s opening decline indicates that the stock is losing momentum and falling back below the 2,900 tenge level. Kaspi is rising on the local market today — on Nasdaq, the stock recently broke above an important descending trendline, which is a positive signal.
Currency. The tenge has shown a strong performance in recent days — it weakened against the dollar in only one of the last seven sessions. Today, the national currency continues to strengthen, with the USDKZT rate falling to 513.3 tenge.