External background. The S&P 500 once again updated its highs during the session, but could not hold on, closing with a decrease of 0.25%. Shares of technology companies led by Nvidia and Apple pulled the market down. The NASDAQ lost 0.8% when the Dow Jones Industrial average rose 0.8%. Neil Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said the central bank will bring inflation back to 2%, but estimates suggest it will probably take a year or two. Today, traders are preparing for a “triple witchcraft day” with the expiration of options worth $5.5 trillion, according to SpotGamma. Such a quarterly event can cause increased volatility in the market. In Europe, yesterday there was a good growth in the Stoxx 600 quotes by 0.93%. The German DAX gained slightly more than 1%, and the French CAC400 immediately gained 1.3%. The Bank of England kept the rate at 5.25%. Traders expect the regulator to cut rates in August after dovish signals from politicians. In Asian markets, the Hang Seng is declining again, returning to the 50-day average after recently breaking through it. The charts of the other indices show a more moderate decline. Oil is trading at $85.7 in the morning. Copper is correcting after yesterday's growth.
Bonds. The 10-year yield rose slightly yesterday to 4.255%. Emerging market corporate bonds declined 0.4%.
The KASE index. The KASE index was unable to overcome the resistance levels, which are the highs of May 21 and April 2, and reach historical peaks. In fact, the market is still in a sideways trend.
Index shares. The most striking stock on the market in terms of dynamics can now be called only Kaspi. Fintech quotes increased by another 1% yesterday, almost reaching the level of 60,000 tenge and April highs. We believe that the securities will meet further resistance and KSPI shares will not move further in the local horizon. Kazmunaigas shows slow but locally limited growth. Kaztransoil grew by almost 2% yesterday, but this did not change the picture of securities. Air Astana's GDR grew the most on the LSE. They have started to break through the downtrend line, but have not yet broken through the 50-day moving average.
Currency. This morning, another sharp spurt of the dollar against the tenge was noticed below the 465 mark. Our fears about another local wave in the current weakening of the tenge have been fulfilled. It turns out that the dollar under the level of 460 tenge has made a respite for new growth. The rate of tenge weakening in today's session looks not weak, so there are chances that the USDKZT quotes will approach 470, or more precisely, 468.9, since the Fibonacci resistance level passes at this mark. Nevertheless, we are still inclined to believe that in the current wave, the dollar will not overcome 470 tenge. Meanwhile, the ruble remains highly volatile and has declined by almost 1% today and 4.5% yesterday. However, in the big picture, the USDRUB returns to its values on June 14-17.
Key market news
(=) Inflation: EDB: inflation in Kazakhstan will be 8.3% by the end of the year
(=) KGMZ: KMG is exploring the possibility of producing jet fuel