Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 started the session in positive territory but then fell by 0.3%. Trump stated that India may face U.S. tariffs of 20–25%, but the final rate has not yet been determined. Bessent noted that the EU’s 15% tariff rate could be reviewed if the bloc does not meet its obligations and added that China and the U.S. will continue discussions on extending the tariff truce. The Chinese side reported that a 90-day extension was agreed upon in Stockholm, but Bessent countered that the final decision remains with Trump. The U.S. consumer confidence index rose stronger than expected in July, reaching 97.2. The number of job vacancies decreased in June after growth in the previous two months. Today, the Fed is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged despite pressure from Trump to cut it. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose by 0.3%, and the DAX increased by 3%. France’s economic growth unexpectedly accelerated in Q2, increasing by 0.3%. Data for the Eurozone will be released next, with GDP expected to slow compared to the previous quarter. In Asia, Hang Seng is down 1.1%, while markets in Korea and Japan are closed. However, the yen is strengthening on the forex market amid tsunami warnings following a powerful earthquake in Kamchatka. Meanwhile, the IMF warned that the global economy will continue to weaken despite some resilience to trade shocks. Oil prices rose yesterday after Trump shortened the “final deadlines” for Russia, and this morning oil is trading at around $71.6. S&P 500 futures are up 0.16%.
Bonds. Yields on 10-year U.S. government bonds are falling ahead of the Fed meeting. Emerging market bonds continue to show positive dynamics.
KASE Index. KASE closed neutral again, continuing to consolidate. Local market stocks traded mixed, while stocks on LSE declined uniformly.
Index Stocks. Kaspi and Air Astana stocks led gains yesterday. AIRA’s prices on the local market look more interesting and are currently at their highest since June 23, while remaining within a medium-term sideways trend. Kaspi started consolidating in the local market after the latest growth wave, while ADS prices on Nasdaq closed neutral yesterday. The largest decline was seen in Народный банк (People’s Bank) shares, which also lost 1.2% on the LSE. Prices have paused their growth, which aligns with the current overall market trend. Today, with the opening of trading, KMG shares are rising, reflecting the increase in oil prices (+0.7%).
Currency. The dollar is rising again after a short pause. At the time of this review, the last trade was at 549.5 tenge per dollar. No significant news has emerged to weaken the tenge further. RUBKZT quotes rose to 6.64, despite the ruble losing 1% against the dollar this morning amid the earthquake.