Tenge is stable despite the decline of the dollar in global markets

Our Comments and Expectations

External Background. Yesterday, most major global indices declined again. The S&P 500 lost 0.4%, while defensive assets rose. The market correction affected sectors such as finance and technology (excluding mega-cap companies). In the consumer sector, Walmart shares fell significantly by 6.5% following the release of its earnings report. The company’s CFO acknowledged “uncertainty related to consumer behavior and global economic and geopolitical conditions.” Combined with recent data on declining retail sales, this heightened concerns about consumer demand and negatively impacted the entire index. The decline in the banking sector is also linked to Walmart's stock drop, as well as the release of the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, which fell by 0.3% in January to 101.5. According to Scott Rubner of Goldman Sachs, the U.S. stock market may enter a correction phase as both retail and institutional buyers are losing momentum. Initial jobless claims for the week came in at 219,000 versus the consensus of 215,000. In Europe, indices declined by 0.2–0.6%. This morning, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is rising confidently by 3.2%, reaching its highest levels since February 2024. The leader is Alibaba, whose shares rose 8% on the NYSE yesterday and are gaining 13.2% today in Hong Kong, thanks to revenue exceeding expectations. Oil is trading at $76.3 per barrel in the morning. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 4.63 million barrels last week—marking the fourth consecutive rise and exceeding the median estimate, according to EIA data. Citi and ANZ expect OPEC+ to postpone its planned production increase in April due to economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds declined yesterday to 4.5%.

KASE Index. The KASE index was under pressure from external markets yesterday. Quotes fell by 0.8%, slowing the rebound from the 5,480-point level. However, this correction is not yet a sign of a full reversal of the local trend, despite persistent negative external conditions.

Index Stocks. The biggest loser yesterday was Kaspi, which fell by 2.2%, a relatively moderate decline compared to its ADS performance on Nasdaq the day before. Air Astana shares corrected by 1.6% yesterday. Notably, government interest in the company’s stock led to comments from its CFO. Among GDRs and ADS, the biggest decline came from Halyk Bank, but overall, yesterday’s session did not alter the general picture of our stocks on Western exchanges.

Currency. Yesterday, the tenge's strengthening faltered by the end of the trading session, leaving the USDKZT exchange rate neutral. This morning, the dollar is making cautious attempts to rise against the tenge, but external factors are holding it back—yesterday, the DXY index fell to its lowest level since December 12. The ruble has reached its highest level against the dollar since September 4.