Our Comments and Expectations
Market backdrop. The S&P 500 declined for the first time after five sessions of gains. The main pressure once again came from cryptocurrency — Bitcoin fell 4.5% yesterday, triggering $1 billion worth of leveraged position liquidations. U.S. data showed that manufacturing activity contracted in November at the fastest pace in four months. The jobs report is expected next week, after the rate decision. The Federal Reserve will pay special attention to Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE deflator, its preferred inflation gauge). Forecasts indicate persistent inflationary pressure, longer than desirable. In Europe, the DAX lost 1%, the worst performer among regional indices. Geopolitically, Volodymyr Zelensky praised the updated peace plan. In Asia, the tone is moderately positive in the morning, with South Korea’s Kospi leading gains at +1.7%. S&P 500 futures are slightly lower by 0.1%.
Bonds. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.09%, following declines in Japanese bonds after direct signals from the Bank of Japan about potential rate hikes. Goldman and BMO stated that a Fed rate cut would steepen the Treasury yield curve.
KASE Index. KASE closed neutral yesterday, as expected. The market reacted to a decline in external sentiment, though the drop was contained mainly in companies influenced by domestic factors. The current session opened moderately positive, with the index up 0.15%.
Index constituents. Air Astana, Bank CenterCredit, and Kcell corrected together yesterday. Kaspi gained 1.8%, replicating part of the earlier move seen on Nasdaq. The difference between the two exchanges narrowed to a relatively low 1.8% — a solid setup if ADS resumes an upward trend, which it attempted yesterday. In the evening, ADS rose to $79.6, breaking resistance levels, but later pulled back. Kazatomprom added 1.3% and continues to form a triangle pattern. Today, the biggest gains come from KazTransOil after news that domestic oil transportation tariffs will rise by 37.89% starting in 2026.
FX market. The USD continues to weaken, declining for the fourth consecutive session, now at its lowest level since June. November inflation slowed from 12.6% to 12.4%, marking the third month of cooling. Yesterday, the National Bank reported $600 million sold from the National Fund last month, plus $475 billion tenge worth of mirroring operations (equivalent to $926 million at current FX rates), and $390 million sold by quasi-state companies. Considering the tax month effect, the total FX sales of $1.9 billion exerted significant pressure on the U.S. currency. In December, NBK plans to sell slightly less — $400–500 million from the National Fund and the same amount from mirroring operations. Despite lower planned volumes and no tax period, pressure on the dollar will remain elevated.