Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.4% and closed at new highs. The main growth drivers were technology stocks, with AMD standing out — its shares surged 23.7% following news of an agreement with OpenAI to develop infrastructure. On the other hand, this reinforced concerns about a potential AI bubble.
Trump announced plans to negotiate with Democrats on healthcare subsidies, which could help resolve the government shutdown issue. European markets showed little movement yesterday.
In commodities, oil rose for the second consecutive session to $65.7 per barrel. Gold climbed to $3,983 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs forecasts the precious metal could reach $4,900 by the end of 2026.
In Asia, sentiment was moderate this morning: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed flat, while markets in China, Hong Kong, and Korea remain closed for holidays. S&P 500 futures are down 0.15% this morning.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries jumped to 4.16%. Japan held a successful auction for 30-year government bonds.
KASE index. The KASE index declined by 0.2% yesterday — its third consecutive negative session. However, the correction is proceeding slowly, and the index is gradually returning to its previous sideways trend, with long shadows on daily candles. Trading volumes were elevated but driven mainly by one stock.
Index components. The strongest gain yesterday came from Kaspi shares, which rose 1.3%. However, ADS on Nasdaq fell by 3% and are now at their lowest since August 1. Local shares may reflect this decline at today’s opening.
Based on the current USDKZT rate, local Kaspi shares are about 9.5% more expensive than ADS, which could limit upside potential if Nasdaq shows positive dynamics.
Conversely, Halyk Bank shares may show upward movement today — they rose 3.7% on the LSE yesterday, fully recovering after the dividend cutoff. On KASE, the stock still needs to rise about 2.8% to return to pre-dividend registry levels. Notably, there is currently no exchange rate difference between the two markets.
Kazatomprom became the main decliner, losing 1.6% on the local market. The company officially denied plans for a new SPO. On the LSE, prices remained flat, while U.S. uranium ETFs showed gains.
Locally, BCC showed notable movement, falling to 4,702 tenge during the session, which created a long lower shadow on the index’s daily candle. A sharp increase in trading volume came from Kcell, which saw 1 billion tenge traded.
Currency. The U.S. dollar continues to lose ground against the tenge at a faster pace. Yesterday, USDKZT declined by 0.6%, and this morning the tenge strengthened to 542 per dollar. The next support levels are at 541.8 and 540.8 tenge.