Tesla: a bet on Robotaxi, FSD, and the energy business

Investment Ideas

22 September 2026, 13:03

Tesla (TSLA) is a manufacturer of electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and artificial intelligence-based solutions. The company’s investment appeal is tied to a recovery in vehicle deliveries, growth in FSD subscriptions, the development of Robotaxi, and expansion of the energy business. Key risks include declining profitability, negative free cash flow, and rising capital expenditures.

Investment appeal factors:

  • Vehicle sales returned to growth. In Q2 2026, Tesla delivered 480 126 vehicles—up 25% year over year. Production increased by 10% to 451 758 vehicles, while inventory fell to 15 days of sales versus 24 days a year earlier.
  • Revenue exceeded $28 bln. The figure rose 26% year over year to $28,24 bln. The automotive segment grew 23%, the energy business—13%, and services and other revenue increased 50%. Tesla’s revenue over the last 12 months exceeded $100 bln for the first time.
  • FSD and Robotaxi are becoming standalone growth drivers. The number of active FSD subscriptions increased 56% to 1,48 mln. More than 55% of new vehicles in North America were delivered with a subscription to the system. The Robotaxi service is already operating in seven major U.S. metropolitan areas, and Tesla has begun production of the dedicated autonomous vehicle Cybercab.
  • The energy business continues to expand. Deployed energy storage reached 13,5 GWh, up 41% year over year. This is the second-largest quarterly result in the company’s history. The new Megafactory Texas plant is preparing to start production of Megapack 3 and Megablock.
  • New products could broaden revenue sources. Production of the Tesla Semi truck is planned to begin in 2026. The company is also installing the first production lines for the humanoid robot Optimus. Going forward, Tesla expects to supplement hardware sales with revenue from software, artificial intelligence, and its own Robotaxi fleet.
  • Declining profitability remains the main risk. Operating profit fell 57% to $398 mln, and operating margin declined from 4,1% to 1,4%. Capital expenditures jumped 142% to $5,79 bln, resulting in free cash flow of minus $1,09 bln. At the same time, Tesla retains $43,52 bln in cash and short-term investments.

Target price: $425

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