Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. On Friday, October 30, U.S. markets closed with a notable decline: the S&P 500 lost 1.8%, while the Nasdaq fell 2.9%. The main pressure came from the technology sector following Intel and Amazon earnings reports, which heightened investor doubts about the payback of large-scale investments in artificial intelligence. Intel’s weak guidance and the significant capex of tech companies increased the market’s sensitivity to high equity valuations. The sell-off was accompanied by demand for Treasuries: the 10-year UST yield fell by 6 bps to 4.93%. At the same time, energy and certain defensive names looked more resilient than the tech sector. Brent crude rose 2.4% to $113,43 per barrel amid heightened supply-risk concerns from the Middle East. Gold fell 3.3% to $3 898,9 per ounce. Europe’s Stoxx 600 lost 0.4%. In Asia this morning, the Kospi is up 2.5%, while S&P 500 futures are rebounding by 0.47%. Brent crude is slipping to $110.
KASE Index. The Kazakh market ended Friday slightly higher: the KASE Index added 0.06% to 7 916,32 points. Support came from Air Astana and Kaspi.kz, while the main drag was the decline in Kazatomprom. Six of the ten stocks in the representative list posted positive performance. At the session high, the index quotes nearly reached the upper boundary of the local trend. Against this backdrop, a correction toward the lower boundary of the channel is possible in the coming sessions.
Index stocks. The top gainer was Air Astana (+2.2%), whose GDRs in London rose 3.7%. A trigger for the move may have been news of a partnership with China Southern Airlines. The carriers plan to coordinate schedules, expand code-sharing, and jointly promote flights. The cooperation creates opportunities to increase passenger traffic and load factors through more convenient connections and access to both companies’ route networks. On AIX, Solidcore shares fell 1.2% to $13,10 despite a moderately positive production report. Revenue in Q3 increased 12% y/y to $602 mn, and production rose 18% to 148 thousand ounces of gold equivalent. The recovery in shipments supports our thesis that the disruptions in the first half of the year were temporary, although sales remain 10% below last year’s level. The company maintained its annual production guidance of 540 thousand ounces, which implies a 23% increase in output in Q4 versus Q3. An additional negative factor for the shares was the decline in gold, which fell to its lowest levels since October 2025. Our most volatile names on Western exchanges—Kaspi and Kazatomprom—had an unsuccessful session, offsetting gains from recent sessions: Kaspi failed to break above the 50-day moving average and bounced lower, returning to the October 28 level, while Kazatomprom lost 7% over two sessions and moved back below the trend line it had recently broken above. Both names are now strongly influenced by the U.S. market, especially Kazatomprom, which has begun to correlate with the semiconductor sector.
Currency. USDKZT is trading today without significant volatility at the level of the 50-day moving average.