Uber Technologies (UBER) is the largest global ride-hailing and delivery platform, connecting customers, drivers, and couriers through its own app. The investment thesis is based on a potential reassessment of Uber’s long-term role in autonomous transportation as Tesla Robotaxi scales and Waymo’s independence increases.
Investment attractiveness factors:
- Scaling Tesla Robotaxi calls into question Uber’s role as a must-have intermediary. Tesla combines the vehicle, autonomous-driving technology, charging infrastructure, fleet, and customer app within its own ecosystem. Service expansion and confirmation of high utilization, short wait times, and competitive trip pricing may show that a large robotaxi operator does not need an external aggregator.
- Waymo is developing a direct-to-customer model. The company already takes orders through its own app and is expanding the service geography. If Waymo continues to reduce its dependence on Uber, investors may reassess the platform’s negotiating power: the most valuable parts of the chain—autonomous technology and vehicles—are controlled by other companies, while Uber risks retaining only the function of demand acquisition and allocation.
- Investments in autonomous transportation increase the business’s capital intensity. Uber plans to invest more than $10 bn in technology developers, infrastructure, and maintenance of autonomous fleets. Such spending may constrain free cash flow growth and reduce resources for share buybacks, especially if the core business slows.
- The technical setup allows for further downside. After the August rebound, the stock failed to hold above $80–82 and pulled back to $75.65. The price fell below the 20-day moving average at $76.20 and the 200-day average at $76.65. The relative strength index is around 50, so there are no signs of oversold conditions yet.
Target price: $65,5