External background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.85% yesterday at the end of the session, although it reached +1.3% at its opening, confirming the words of analysts from Citi regarding the price swing after inflation data, which amounted to 3.3% yoy and 0.3% on a monthly basis. This indicator turned out to be lower than forecasts and showed a decrease in consumer price growth for the second month in a row. The core price index, which does not include food and energy costs, increased by 0.2% compared to last month and 3.4% year-on-year, which is the slowest pace in more than three years. The market grew, especially through the technology sector, then pulled back slightly after the Fed's press conference. It turned out that Powell and the team had planned only one rate cut in 2024, but foresee four cuts instead of three in 2025. Politicians have kept the key rate at a stable level. Goldman said that the weakness of the stock market may manifest itself later this summer, as positioning in American stocks will reach its limit. In Europe, indexes were rising, the Stoxx 600 gained 1.1%, the German DAX pushed off from its 50-day moving average by 1.4%. In Asian markets, the optimism of the United States and Europe is very cautiously shared, since morning, only the Korean Kospi has shown noticeable growth from the central indexes. Oil rose to $82.3 per barrel of Brent. Uranium rose 3.7% to $86 per pound amid increased talk that global consumption of nuclear energy continues to grow.
Bonds. The US 10-year yield has gone back into a local wave of decline. Yesterday, the quotes fell to 4.32%, although they did not fall below the minimum on June 6.
The KASE index. KASE lost another 0.5% yesterday, which is the third decline in a row. The quotes confirmed some local bearish signals, however, it is still far to exit the formed side channel – the lower limit is closer to the 4900 mark, to which there is about 1.8% potential for a decline, which, by the standards of the local market, is not small for the local horizon.
Index shares. Kcell had the largest decline yesterday, but the sideways trend also continues here and yesterday's decline did not make any changes to the chart. Halyk Bank came in second place, but the quotes were able to show an increase in the LSE by 2.6%. Kaspi shares rose by 2.5% on the NYSE and so far look very good compared to most securities on the local market. Kazatomprom has also become promising again against the background of a jump in uranium prices yesterday. The fact is that quotes for the radioactive metal bounced up from the previous low around $83.15, thereby giving a hint of the formation of a double bottom. Kazatomprom itself did not break down the Fibonacci support level of $39.45. We are watching further for the possibility of a rebound.
Currency. The dollar declined yesterday on the USDKZT chart along with the DXY index. But today the quotes are rising again to 451.7 tenge per dollar. It is reported that the Moscow Exchange will no longer hold trades with a pair of USDRUB and USDEUR due to the sanctions imposed.
Key market news
(=) KASE: KASE has made a statement regarding US sanctions against its Russian shareholder