Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, partially recovering the losses suffered the day before yesterday. Nvidia turned out to be the growth leader, which had previously declined against the background of an unsuccessful ASML report in Europe. ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said he expects the chip market to slowly recover "until 2025" after the report's results triggered a widespread sell-off in the industry. There was also good growth in the financial sector, which successfully started the reporting season. Morgan Stanley's trading and net interest income exceeded expectations in yesterday's report, and the company's quotes rose by 6.5%. The Russell 2000 index, which represents small-cap companies, outperformed the S&P 500, showing an increase of 1.65%. Meanwhile, markets are preparing for the US presidential election on November 5th. A Fox News poll shows one of the candidates ahead of Kamala Harris with 50% to 48%. In Europe, the quotes showed a slight decrease. The ECB intends to reduce the deposit rate to 3.25% on Thursday, which will be the second reduction in a row. According to Bloomberg Economics, policymakers are expected to cut the rate again by 25 basis points in December. In Asia, a moderate decline was seen in the markets of Japan and Korea in the morning. Oil prices did not change much yesterday. According to Bloomberg, oil traders are pessimistic about the market prospects for next year, expecting that supply will exceed demand.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year US bonds continued to decline yesterday and amounted to 4.01%.
The KASE index. The KASE index closed neutrally yesterday. Most stocks spent the session calmly, and only two of them showed a price change of more than 1%. We have observed more interesting dynamics in our securities on foreign exchanges.
Index shares. Kazakhtelecom showed the largest increase on KASE: quotations increased by 2.3%, and trading volumes reached their maximum since April of this year. The growth is quite interesting and theoretically may be related to the recent activity in Kcell securities. Nevertheless, from a technical point of view, the situation with Kazakhtelecom shares has not changed much, and they remain in a sideways trend. As for the most declined stock, it stood out Kaspi.kz . At the same time, the Nasdaq quotes were able to show an increase of 3.4%, so at the opening of trading on the local market, positions are expected to recover. In our opinion, the most interesting growth was seen in Kazatomprom. Quotes finally broke through the upper limit of the sideways trend at $39.4. Positive dynamics was observed in the entire subsector of uranium companies: the Global X Uranium ETF jumped by 7%, and the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF increased by 6.1%. The trigger for the growth was the statements of large technology companies about plans to invest in projects for the development of small modular nuclear reactors (MMR). Amazon announced this yesterday, and a little earlier Google presented a similar plan to supply electricity to data centers and AI development.
Currency. Yesterday, the dollar could not develop its success further, because under the mark of 490 tenge, the national currency began to be bought off. This morning we see a decrease in USDKZT to 486.7.