Our Comments and Expectations
External Background.
The S&P 500 closed relatively flat yesterday. On the index map, megacap stocks showed moderate declines, with the largest drop seen in Nvidia (-2.9%). Meanwhile, other sectors — energy, utilities, consumer, and industrials — moved into positive territory. The S&P 500 VIX volatility index fell below the 30-point mark. One of the central topics on the market was Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and the debate around the regulator’s independence. Jerome Powell opposed the idea of the Fed directly supporting the markets, which irritated Trump. According to him, he “has the authority to remove Powell from the Fed if he wishes.” Later, the U.S. president announced a future trade agreement with the EU but did not provide details. He also mentioned that a deal between the U.S. and Ukraine for mineral supplies would be signed next week. Jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to the lowest level in two months, indicating a stable labor market. European indexes also closed relatively neutral. The ECB cut its interest rate for the seventh time since June of last year — by 25 basis points, down to 2.25%, as expected by the markets. In Asia, markets opened with Hong Kong closed, while Japan and South Korea showed gains of around 1%. Due to Good Friday, stock exchanges in the U.S., Europe, and several other countries are closed. The Hong Kong and European exchanges will also be closed for two consecutive sessions, including April 21. On Friday, oil posted decent gains, while gold failed to hold new highs.
Bonds.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries is hovering near its 50-day moving average. Corporate bonds showed gains.
KASE Index.
The KASE index fell by 0.92% yesterday. The recent rebound stalled at the resistance level of 5600 points and then reversed. However, prices remained above the range of the recent short-term consolidation.
Index Stocks.
The biggest decline on Thursday came from Halyk Bank shares, which fell by 3.7%. The stock appears to be forming a triangle pattern, which may persist until the record date on May 5 (excluding T+2 settlement). This structure reflects consolidation and a lack of buyer activity ahead of upcoming dividend payments. Other local stocks showed moderate declines: Kaspi dropped 1.4%, despite a 3.6% rise in its ADS on Nasdaq. GDRs remain quite volatile — Kazatomprom fell by 5.3% and returned to a support level around $30. Halyk Bank also fell by 3.1% and is forming a similar technical pattern on the international exchange. The currency difference between shares traded on different exchanges remains minimal, except for Kazatomprom, where it stands at 6.4% in favor of the local listing.
Currency.
USDKZT declined for the second session in a row following the dollar’s sharp rise on April 16. As of this morning, the forex rate for the dollar is 521.7 KZT, which is in line with the KASE rate. It is worth noting that the ruble has begun a new strengthening wave against the dollar: the USDRUB rate is now 81 rubles per dollar — the strongest level for the Russian currency since June 2023.