Our Comments and Expectations
External Background.
The S&P 500 rose by 0.4% after previously falling by -1.86%. The index reached the 50-day moving average, which acted as a support level. Among the key economic news was the labor market report. In October 2024, the U.S. economy added only 12,000 jobs, well below expectations, indicating a slowdown in hiring. This is the lowest job growth in six months, compared to 254,000 in September. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and wage growth was 0.3% compared to the previous month. These figures contrast with stronger labor market reports on Thursday (unemployment claims) and Wednesday (job openings). However, the market reacted weakly to these numbers, likely attributing the decline to strong hurricanes and large-scale strikes. Among individual companies, Amazon (+6.2%) and Intel (+7.8%) stocks saw significant growth. Exxon Mobil and Chevron exceeded earnings forecasts, although their stock prices moved in opposite directions. This week, investor attention shifts to the U.S. presidential elections, which will take place tomorrow, November 5. The Fed’s meeting is also expected, where the regulator might cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. In Europe, major indices have slightly recovered after a three-day decline. In Asia, the Korean market is rising, Japan is on holiday, and Chinese indices are showing slight increases. In China, officials presented measures to attract foreign investment ahead of the U.S. elections. Oil is rising by 1.8% this morning, nearly reaching $75 per barrel. OPEC+ has reportedly agreed to postpone the planned production increase in December by one month.
Bonds.
The yield on U.S. 10-year government bonds continues to rise, reaching its highest level since July 3. Corporate bonds have significantly declined.
KASE Index.
The KASE index ended last week neutrally after three weeks of growth. Today’s opening has shown a positive result. The external background seems moderately positive, but due to the large number of important events, market sentiment could change throughout the week.
Index Stocks.
On the local market, two stocks stand out among the growing ones — Halyk Bank and Kcell. HSBK has risen for the sixth consecutive session (including today) and is at its highest level since May 6. Notably, prior to the last report, the stock also rose but then fell after the release. Kcell has also been rising for six consecutive sessions and is at historic highs. Tomorrow, Air Astana’s earnings report will be in focus, with its shares currently at their lows. Among GDRs and ADS, a slight decrease was observed. Kaspi’s GDRs on Nasdaq fell by 1.2% and are still under pressure from the 50-day moving average.
Currency.
The USD/KZT exchange rate is trading below the 490 tenge mark today. The U.S. dollar has shown volatility on the DXY index chart over the past two trading sessions, but overall, it has stopped showing growth.