Our comments and expectations
External Background.
The S&P 500 reached its sixth consecutive positive session yesterday. However, the growth began to slow down as it approached resistance levels of 5660 points, where historical highs are located, and the index bounced down on September 3. The decrease in investor activity can also be attributed to caution ahead of the Fed meeting. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley expressed support on Monday for a half-point rate cut. Among the index sectors, technology companies, especially semiconductor manufacturers, appeared weaker than others. Apple declined by 2.8% after reports surfaced regarding lower-than-expected demand for the new iPhone 16 Pro. Microsoft announced a new $60 billion share repurchase program and increased quarterly dividends by 10%. Intel jumped nearly 8% in after-hours trading after attracting Amazon AWS as a client for custom AI chips, potentially bringing work to new factories being built in the U.S. Goldman Sachs stated that it is time to buy the AI dip, while BofA recommends dividend stocks. Among economic news, there was an unexpected rise in manufacturing activity in New York State. Economists expect a decline in retail sales for August due to falling auto sales, although industrial production may have increased. Meanwhile, European indices showed slight declines. Today, the markets in mainland China and South Korea are closed. Hong Kong is trading notably higher, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 is down by 1%.
Bonds.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries decreased to 3.62%. Meanwhile, corporate bonds are experiencing a rally. Emerging market bonds stood out yesterday, rising by 0.6%.
KASE Index.
The KASE index showed nearly neutral results yesterday, losing 0.2%. Today, the market is likely to recover these small losses. It’s worth noting that until the index shows more significant results and secures itself above the 5215-point mark, hints at recovery will not transition into stronger technical signals for local growth.
Index Stocks.
Stocks within the index did not show significant price changes. The largest decline was seen in Kcell, which is now at the lower boundary of the local sideways channel. Sideways trends (both local and medium-term) are currently maintained in the shares of CCBN, KEGOC, KMGZ, KZAP, KZTK, and KZTO. The National Bank is recovering, while Kaspi is declining. Air Astana is forming an upward divergence on the daily chart. On the LSE, the largest growth was observed in the National Bank, while the most significant decline was seen in Kazatomprom. Kaspi lost 1.4% on the NYSE. It’s worth mentioning that ADS was quite volatile during yesterday’s trading session, dropping as low as $115 per share.
Currency.
After four consecutive sessions of growth, the dollar is showing a slight decline against the tenge this morning. USD/KZT is currently trading at 480.3 tenge.