Our Comments and Expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 declined by 0.4% amid weakness in large-cap stocks. A number of semiconductor manufacturers and most other sectors posted gains, allowing the industrial-focused Dow Jones Index to finish the session in positive territory, unlike the other two major benchmarks.
Initial optimism regarding U.S.-Iran relations faded somewhat, despite Vice President J.D. Vance describing the first round of negotiations as “very, very good” and stating that Iran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country. However, sources in Iran denied Vance’s claims.
In addition, the United States granted Iran a 60-day license to sell oil on international markets, providing economic support to Tehran.
European indices posted solid gains, although they are trading lower at today’s open.
The situation in Asia looks considerably weaker this morning. Among the major indices, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is showing the smallest loss, down 1.7%. South Korea’s Kospi has plunged by 10%, prompting a 20-minute trading halt on the exchange.
It is worth noting that the Korean market is often viewed as a proxy for investor sentiment toward the technology sector.
S&P 500 futures are currently down 1.2%, while oil prices continue to decline, with Brent crude falling to $76.5 per barrel.
KASE Index. KASE experienced another calm trading session yesterday, as gains in Kcell shares were offset by weakness in Kaspi. However, heightened volatility in global markets this morning may increase volatility in the local market as well.
Index constituents. Kaspi’s ADSs on Nasdaq surged 3.2% yesterday.
From a technical perspective, this appears positive, as the shares broke above their 50-day moving average, opening the possibility for further upside.
However, the negative tone across Asian markets and the technology sector this morning may put pressure on the stock, potentially sending it back toward levels seen two sessions ago.
In such a scenario, the shares could return to a sideways trading range.
The same applies to Kazatomprom, which gained 1.6% yesterday but failed to break above its 50-day moving average.
At today’s market open, KazMunayGas shares are up 0.16%, while Kaspi is gaining 0.7%, indicating relatively cautious market sentiment.
Most other stocks are posting only minor declines, suggesting that the overall market picture remains fairly stable.
Gold prices are down nearly 2% this morning, which may negatively affect Solidcore shares following yesterday’s 1.1% gain.
Currency. The U.S. dollar attempted to decline toward KZT 485.3 today but had recovered to KZT 486.5 by the time this report was prepared.
In the broader context, the situation remains unchanged. Since June 10, the USD/KZT exchange rate has continued to trade within a sideways consolidation range.