Our Comments and Expectations
External Background.Sentiment in the U.S. market continued to improve following reports from the Wall Street Journal that Trump is considering a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods. However, tariffs on certain types of goods will remain high, and according to Secretary Bessent, reaching a full agreement with China could take 2–3 years. Against this backdrop, by the end of the trading day, optimism in stocks slightly faded. The earnings season also continued: yesterday, Boeing and Tesla reported their results. Both companies saw noticeable increases in their share prices. Boeing reported a smaller-than-expected loss, while Tesla’s stock rose largely due to Elon Musk’s statement that he would be more actively involved in the company’s operational management in the near future. In Europe, indices posted strong growth as market sentiment was at its peak by the time of their closing. However, futures are currently indicating a decline: the Stoxx 600 is down by 0.1%, and the DAX is down by 0.2%. Fresh PMI data in Europe showed a neutral result: the index fell from 50.9 points in March to 50.1 points — close to the neutral 50-point threshold. In Asia, markets are showing mixed dynamics this morning: the Hang Seng is down by 1.2%, while the Nikkei 225 is up by 0.5%.
Futures on the S&P 500 index are down by 0.5%, amid a slow increase in the VIX ("fear index"). Oil prices are down by 1.3% this morning, trading at $65.3 per barrel.
The decline follows reports that OPEC+ is considering accelerating production increases in June.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries remained almost unchanged yesterday but is falling to 4.35% today.
KASE Index. The KASE index closed up by 0.7% yesterday. Against the backdrop of positive external sentiment, the index is likely to attempt another move toward recent highs slightly above 5,600 points.
Index Stocks. Yesterday, the strongest growth was seen in Kazatomprom shares following a dividend recommendation. The company's GDRs on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) rose by 7.6%, supported by the overall positive market backdrop. Kazatomprom shares are likely starting a more extended positive wave within a descending channel. Kaspi.kz ADS shares rose by 4.1% yesterday, suggesting a similar scenario to Kazatomprom’s potential recovery within a descending channel.
We do not rule out the possibility of Kaspi.kz ADS shares recovering by more than 10% over the next month. Halyk Bank’s GDRs rose by 3.4%, having managed to stay above the trend line during the recent broad market correction, which also supports a positive outlook for the stock.
Currency. The tenge posted a slight gain against the U.S. dollar for the second day in a row, amid easing external pressure. At the moment, USDKZT quotations are once again declining. Yesterday, the ruble weakened to 83, allowing the tenge to strengthen against the ruble to 6.28.