External backdrop. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% on Friday after positive economic data. Business activity in the US is reported to have grown at the fastest pace in more than four years, as stronger demand and more optimistic forecasts spurred a wave of hiring. According to the latest monthly Bloomberg News survey, GDP is expected to grow at 2.5% y/y versus 2% previously. On the other hand, the yield on 10-year Treasuries continued to rise and reached 4.73%. At the end of the week, Iran’s president called for an end to the war with the US, speaking out against hardliners. Bessent said Iran will face an “economic D-Day,” as the US is set to present the largest financial offensive in history against an adversary today. In Europe, indices also rose by 0.6%. PMI indices showed that eurozone private-sector activity unexpectedly improved slightly in August thanks to the strongest growth in the manufacturing sector in more than four years. This morning, Asian indices are falling: the CSI 300, Hang Seng and Kospi are down 1.2– 3.1%. Oil is down 2.8% to $91 per barrel for Brent. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2%.
KASE Index. KASE posted a solid 0.7% gain on Friday on higher trading volumes. Thus, quotes likely took a pause in the decline after the start of the correction from the 8,100-point level. Today, a restraining factor for the market is Halyk Bank shares, which are experiencing a dividend gap.
Index stocks. On Friday, shares of KazTransOil showed unusual activity without any accompanying news flow: on increased volumes, quotes jumped, nearly reaching 1,200 tenge, but closed at 1,147 tenge. Despite a decent attempt, the stock still remained within the sideways channel and below resistance levels. Air Astana shares rose 2.2% after a 1.9% decline in the prior session. In the broader picture, the price dynamics look good, as since July 10 they have been in an upward wave. Halyk Bank rose 1.1% on Friday, but today it is down 5.5% due to the shareholder register фиксацией at 00:00 on August 26 for the payment of a dividend of 28.1 tenge per share. This is the bank’s second dividend this year, and the total payout amounts to 58.2 tenge per share, with a dividend yield to Friday’s closing price of 14.3%, which is the highest among the index stocks. According to Bloomberg, the dividend per GDR (40 shares) will be $2.385964. On overseas venues, the performance of our GDRs and ADS was also positive: Kaspi posted the biggest gain, adding 1.8%. Around $108, quotes are most likely to face resistance at the upper boundary of the channel. Therefore, we believe that locally the potential for further upside is limited to about 4%.
Currency. The dollar is still holding above the important level of 455.4 tenge. Today, USDKZT is trading at 458.5 tenge. Bloomberg reports that dollar-funded carry trades in emerging markets are showing the longest streak of gains since 2008, delivering positive returns for the seventh consecutive quarter.