Our comments and expectations
External environment. The S&P 500 continues to perform well — despite a modest gain on Friday, the index closed at new all-time highs and extended its winning streak to nine consecutive weeks, marking the longest run since 2023. Oil fell below $92 per barrel on Friday, reaching its lowest level since March 11. This morning, prices rebounded to $93 following reports of U.S. strikes on drone command centers in Iran, while Kuwait confirmed that its air defense systems intercepted hostile targets. On Friday, Donald Trump did not make a final decision on a preliminary ceasefire extension agreement, despite earlier promises on social media. Separately, Bessent suggested that the U.S. could ease some sanctions on Iran depending on how the current conflict evolves. Sentiment in Asia is positive this morning, with the technology-heavy Kospi index up as much as 3.9%. S&P 500 futures are also extending gains, up 0.3%.
KASE Index. Friday trading on the KASE ended with a neutral result. The momentum from the recent upward wave started to weaken as the index approached local resistance levels. The earnings season is coming to an end, which means the market is entering a summer period when equities typically show lower volatility, while the tenge tends to weaken.
Index stocks. On the local market, banking stocks rose on Friday — Halyk Bank and Bank CenterCredit gained 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively. BCC stood out as it broke out of local consolidation and reached its highest level since March 19. In a broader perspective, the stock remains within a long-term sideways channel that has persisted since late last year. Nevertheless, such upward signals in CCBN remain noteworthy, as similar moves in the past have often led to sustained upward waves. A breakout above the 4,840 KZT level would confirm this upward move. As for Halyk Bank, the stock broke above a local downward trendline, as previously noted. LSE GDRs also rose by 2.2%, although intraday volatility was high and the 50-day moving average was unsuccessfully tested. Breaking above this level is likely to be the main task for the coming week. Meanwhile, Kaspi ADS on Nasdaq showed signs of reversal, declining by nearly 3% over the past two sessions. Kazatomprom also reversed after failing to break above its 50-day moving average. The rest of the uranium sector showed relatively neutral dynamics compared to the 2.8% decline in KAP GDRs. The standout performer was KazTransOil, which broke out of consolidation, reached its highest level since April 8, and continues to signal further upside potential.
Currency. USDKZT continues to rise today, although the pace of growth is slowing due to the resistance level around 488, which has been tested for three consecutive sessions.