Financier №3 (43) 2026

Nurlan Zhumagulov,

oil Industry Analyst, Director of the Energy Monitor Public Foundation

The main infrastructure risk for Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector is export logistics - primarily the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), through which 83 % of all exports from Kazakhstan are shipped. Disruptions to this pipeline pose a direct threat to the country’s foreign exchange earnings. In January 2026, CPC shipments dropped by 45 % below the planned level due to adverse weather, maintenance work, and the aftermath of UAV attacks.

We transport 95 % of our export oil via Russia. According to forecasts, Kazakhstan will maintain stable production for another 10 years, after which a decline is expected. Many existing fields are already at their peak capacity. The largest ones (Tengiz, Kashagan, Karachaganak) supply feedstock exclusively for export - and this is a situation we would like to change.

Regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it primarily affects LNG supplies to Southeast Asia. The resulting shortage has pushed up fertilizer prices, and the sulfur needed for their production has doubled in price in our market. For Kazakhstan, this is undoubtedly a positive development. Thanks to instability in the Middle East, we are launching two urea production projects simultaneously. Demand for Kazakh oil has also risen, and for the first time in history, it is trading at a premium to Brent. We should definitely take advantage of this situation, as the EU’s decarburization requirements primarily target the mining and metallurgical sectors. So far, oil producers face no stringent restrictions.

 

Konstantin Simonov,

head of the National Energy Security Fund (Russia)

Today, the oil market is controlled by investment and pension funds - primarily American ones - and the oil futures market has long been a key factor in the dominance of the US dollar. At the same time, the US (from its own perspective) is beginning to lose control. Washington seeks to influence prices by “switching off” its competitors through sanctions, wars, and logistics regulation. 

Nevertheless, market mechanisms emerge even under the most difficult conditions. For example, Russian companies under sanctions are able to navigate all restrictions thanks to the market: they continue selling oil with payments in global currencies and even in crypto, and they manage their logistics as well.

As for the so‑called oil peak (the moment when oil production reaches its maximum), it is more of a psychological tool to influence the market. Many potential fields have already been discovered - for example, in the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, and Guyana. Their development is complex, but technology is advancing as well. Russia also has vast resources on the Arctic shelf.

It is too early to talk about a peak in demand for black gold. If an importer can consistently obtain feedstock at reasonable prices and without additional requirements, that is a competitive advantage. In my view, Russia is precisely such a partner - especially for China and India.

 

Abzal Narymbetov,

founder of Energy Analytics, Certified Independent Petroleum Valuation Engineer

One of the key structural risks for Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector is the long investment cycle. If projects are underfunded today, they will not deliver results until the early to mid‑2030s. That is why companies increasingly opt for smaller, short‑term projects with higher profitability: these allow faster responses to price changes. Currently, US shale projects and offshore developments in South America mainly drive growth in global production.

The most likely scenario is not a sharp oil shortage, but a period of high price volatility. The market is simultaneously under pressure from insufficient investment in the sector and external factors - including prolonged geopolitical instability, such as the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.

The riskiest investment stage, where returns are not guaranteed, is geological exploration. It is particularly sensitive to regulatory changes because, at this stage, investors do not yet have a tangible asset to use as collateral or protect via a production‑sharing agreement.

Over the next 20–30 years, the growing number of electric vehicles will likely gradually reduce oil demand. At the same time, the development of AI infrastructure creates additional demand for electricity. This is not directly linked to oil, but it does require increased power generation. The share of renewable energy sources will expand, while traditional energy will continue to ensure grid stability and provide the necessary reserve capacity.

 

Kamal Aubakirov,

critical Minerals Analyst, Georgetown University

Comparing critical minerals to “new oil” is only half-accurate. Geopolitically, the analogy holds. Economically, not so much: the oil market is measured in trillions of dollars, whereas mineral markets are far smaller and more volatile.

Today, critical minerals determine the industrial and defense competitiveness of nations, and China holds the main leverage here. Its strength lies not in ore reserves, but in processing: China controls about 90 % of global rare earth metal processing and roughly 70–75 % of the refining of lithium, cobalt, and several other rare metals. This concentration of processing capacity is itself a tool of influence. After Beijing introduced export restrictions in 2023, prices for certain metals - including gallium and tungsten - rose many-fold.

For Kazakhstan, the practical takeaway is this: having a deposit does not mean having a mine. The country’s real niche lies in rare (minor) metals. With the launch of Boguta in 2024, Kazakhstan entered the top three global producers of tungsten, and ERG’s offtake contract* with Mitsubishi is set to move the country into second place for gallium.

*An agreement for the sale and purchase of products before their actual production begins

It is telling that ExxonMobil and Chevron are developing lithium projects using formation brines, where the technologies are similar to oilfield operations. This appears to be more of an initial transfer of competencies than a full‑scale shift away from hydrocarbon production. Oil dependence will not disappear, but the competition for future positions has already moved into the processing of critical minerals.

 

Alibek Bekmukhametov,

deputy Chairman, Committee for Environmental Regulation and Control, Ministry of Ecology of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Currently, the Ministry of Ecology of Kazakhstan is most concerned about the risks of air, water, and soil pollution in the country’s oil‑producing regions. The government is working to reduce the negative environmental impact of the oil and gas industry. One of the main directions here is the implementation of Best Available Techniques (BAT) principles. These help make production more environmentally friendly, modernize facilities, reduce pollutant emissions, and use natural resources more efficiently. Under the new Environmental Code, enterprises are transitioning to BAT in stages. 

To enhance the environmental responsibility of businesses and support green technologies, Kazakhstan has a system of Comprehensive Environmental Permits (СEP). Companies that obtain an СEP and implement BAT are exempt from paying fees for emissions and other regulated discharges. This gives Kazakhstan companies a direct financial incentive to upgrade their operations and reduce environmental harm.

This system now combines incentives and requirements designed to raise environmental standards in the oil and gas and other sectors, and to promote the adoption of innovative and green solutions.

 

Gulshat Nyssambayeva

global Recruitment Expert, INTERTASCO, Oil & Gas

Over the past few years, I have worked with both international oil and gas companies and EPC contractors on turnkey projects, as well as in HR consulting. I can say that the oil and gas sector is constantly evolving, as are the requirements for professionals who want to build a career in this industry.

The highest demand in the oil and gas market is for highly skilled engineers of various specializations and experienced specialists - including supervisors - with substantial experience on large international infrastructure projects.

Many companies are actively investing in internship programs, university partnerships, and mentoring systems. Paid internships are especially in demand, as participants gain real production experience within the first few months of employment. At the start of their careers, many young professionals want to understand what career progression will look like over the next three to five years. Companies that openly communicate about their projects, safety investments, and modern technologies are far more attractive to young talent.

In the coming years, demand will grow for professionals at the intersection of engineering and digital technologies: experts in production digitalization, industrial data analytics, automation, industrial cybersecurity, and the integration of AI into industrial processes.

The key competitive advantage for future employees will be a combination of strong technical training, digital skills, proficiency in English, and well‑developed communication competencies. These are exactly the professionals that leading oil and gas companies are looking for today.