Financier №3 (43) 2026

The US–Israel alliance’s conflict with Iran significantly affected world energy markets. Escalation threatens persistent disruptions in oil supplies, rising transportation costs, and risk premiums in commodity markets. When oil prices rise for political reasons, oil & gas and defense companies typically benefit. However, history shows that players in other sectors - insurance, gold mining, and even nuclear energy – also gain.

Tanker Fleet and Marine Insurance

Among the main beneficiaries of oil‑related conflicts are maritime cargo carriers. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has increased route lengths and reduced the number of vessels available for transportation. This has driven up cargo transportation costs (freight rates). Although insurance prices for large tankers have soared 10–20‑fold since the start of the US–Iran conflict, shipping companies have reported growth in net profit. The reason is that cargo owners cover the war‑risk component, so this cost item does not affect carriers’ financial results.

Notable players in this sector include Cyprus‑based Frontline (FRO), Bermuda‑based Nordic American Tankers (NAT), and Belgium‑based CMB.TECH (CMBT). In the first half of the year, FRO and NAT share prices rose by more than 60 %, and Frontline’s first quarter was its best in over 20 years. Its net profit reached $345 million, enabling a 50 % dividend hike.

Heightened geopolitical risks automatically increase insurance costs for vessels passing through dangerous areas. Syndicates such as the UK’s Lloyd’s of London and international reinsurers collect additional premiums, although they also face a higher risk of claims being triggered.

Gold and Precious Metals

Turmoil in the energy market traditionally boosts investor interest in safe‑haven assets. Gold mining companies benefit the most, as their production costs rise significantly more slowly than the price of gold. As a result, profits grow faster than the metal’s price itself.

Sector leaders include US‑based Newmont (NEM) and Canadian firms Barrick Mining (B) and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM). In 2020, gold miners received support from two directions at once: cheap oil reduced their fuel and production costs, while unprecedented global monetary expansion boosted demand for gold. Against this backdrop, Barrick Mining shares rose by 140 % between March and August 2020.

Nuclear Energy and Uranium

If a military conflict leads to a prolonged period of high energy prices (especially for gas), governments tend to pay increasing attention to security and the development of nuclear power generation.

In this scenario, uranium producers benefit - primarily US‑based Uranium Energy (UEC) and Canada‑based Cameco (CCJ), as well as sector‑specific ETFs such as URA and URNM. Investments in these funds suit those willing to wait, as nuclear energy development requires a long investment cycle.

Broad Commodity Cycle

Alongside oil prices, the cost of other commodities often rises due to higher transportation expenses and inflationary expectations. Investors can capitalize on such scenarios through commodity ETFs, including DBC, PDBC, and COMT, which trade on US exchanges and invest in a wide range of commodity futures.

Out of the Spotlight

Oil crises bring not only risks but also new investment opportunities. While some industries suffer from soaring energy prices, others receive an additional growth impulse. That is why, during periods of geopolitical instability, investors who can look beyond the obvious often find the most compelling ideas in sectors and countries that previously flew under the radar.