Freedom: Gold falls amid expectations of Fed policy tightening

Gold prices continue to decline as investors assess the outlook for U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy and developments around Iran. Over the past week, the August gold futures contract has fallen 3.5% to $4000 per troy ounce — the lowest level since November 2025.

According to Freedom analyst Natalia Milchakova, part of the decline is tied to speculative sentiment among market participants who have become disappointed in the prospects for a swift resolution of the conflict involving Iran.

“Back in late May, hopes for a de-escalation of the conflict boosted demand for gold futures, but the protracted negotiation process has shifted traders’ sentiment,” the expert notes.

At the same time, analysts see the main factor weighing on gold as the rising appeal of the U.S. dollar. Investors continue to shift capital into the American currency amid ongoing uncertainty about the future trajectory of U.S. inflation and expectations of a more hawkish Fed.

Freedom believes that concerns about a possible tightening of monetary policy by the U.S. regulator are strengthening the dollar, which traditionally serves as one of gold’s main competitors for investors’ capital.

Further dynamics in the precious-metals market, analysts say, will depend on new Fed signals, U.S. inflation data, and the evolution of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

This is not an individual investment recommendation.