Freedom Broker analysts reiterated their “Buy” rating on United Airlines Holdings (UAL) and raised the target price from $125 to $139. At the current share price of $114.85, the potential upside is about 21%. In the analysts’ view, the company is successfully offsetting higher fuel expenses thanks to persistently high fares, the development of the premium segment, and the expansion of its international route network.
What to know about United Airlines Holdings
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is one of the world’s largest airlines, providing passenger and cargo transportation through a network of seven key hubs in the U.S. The company is actively developing international destinations, the MileagePlus loyalty program, premium services, and is carrying out a large-scale fleet renewal, improving operational efficiency and competitiveness.
Freedom Broker: strong pricing discipline offsets rising costs
The analysts’ main conclusion was that United’s structural advantages allow the company to maintain high profitability even amid record increases in jet fuel prices.
The strategy of developing the premium segment and the international network provides the company with more resilient unit revenue, while current market conditions make it possible to keep fares elevated for longer. Despite the persisting risks, Freedom experts raised the target price to $139 and reiterated a “Buy” rating.
In their view, an additional supportive factor remains the potential for the company to obtain new slots at Newark and Houston airports following Spirit Airlines’ bankruptcy, which could strengthen United’s position on the most profitable routes.
Financial results exceeded market expectations
In the second quarter of 2026, United Airlines posted results above Wall Street expectations. Total operating revenue rose 16% year over year to $17.7 billion. Adjusted diluted earnings per share came in at $1.99, above the analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.90.
The main growth driver remained the passenger business:
— domestic passenger revenue increased 20.3% to $9.5 billion;
— corporate travel rose 27% year over year;
— bookings increased 30%;
— premium cabin revenue rose 16%;
— cargo revenue climbed 22.6% to $527 million, the highest for a second quarter since 2020.
International routes across the Pacific and Atlantic regions showed the strongest unit revenue momentum.
Cost growth remains the key risk
Despite a strong quarter, pressure on profits persists. Total operating expenses increased 19.2% to $16.6 billion, mainly due to higher fuel costs. The average jet fuel price jumped nearly 79% to $4.19 per gallon, which drove fuel expenses up 84.1% to $5.1 billion.
Management said it has already offset about 50% of the additional costs in the second quarter through fare increases, expects to raise that figure to 80–90% in the third quarter, and to reach near-full offset by year-end.
The company also raised its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings per share forecast to $9–11, returning to a full annual outlook after market conditions stabilized.
What analysts are watching
Freedom Broker believes United’s long-term prospects remain attractive thanks to several structural factors. The company continues to increase the share of high-margin premium travel, expands its international route network, deploys Starlink satellite internet on board its aircraft, and renews its fleet. At the same time, lower leverage and the expected slowdown in operating expense growth in 2027 could support further improvement in business profitability.
Company performance
In spring 2026, Freedom Broker analysts had already recommended buying United Airlines shares, but at the time they lowered the target price to $125 amid a sharp rise in jet fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty. Despite these risks, the company managed to beat market expectations for the second quarter, restore its full-year outlook, and confirm the resilience of its business model.
This is not an individual investment recommendation.