Freedom Broker: Slower McDonald’s sales prompt analysts to cut target price

Freedom Broker experts maintained a “Buy” rating on shares of McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) but cut the target price to $305 per share. At the current price of $275.2, the upside potential is about 10.8%. Despite the business’s strong profitability, weaker comparable-sales momentum and revised plans for network expansion limit the company’s near-term potential.

Key facts about McDonald’s 

McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) is the world’s largest fast-food restaurant chain, operating more than 45,000 locations in over 100 countries. Most restaurants operate under a franchise model, enabling the company to maintain high profitability and stable cash flow.

High profitability remains an advantage

McDonald’s maintains one of the highest operating margin metrics in the industry; however, the slowdown in comparable sales shows that the recovery in consumer demand is proceeding more slowly than expected, experts believe. Analysts adjusted their forecasts for network and sales growth but think the business’s long-term drivers remain intact.

In their view, the company’s current valuation already largely reflects short-term risks, while further expansion of the restaurant network and the development of a digital ecosystem can support financial results over the medium term.

Revenue fell short of market expectations

In the second quarter of 2026, McDonald’s increased revenue by 3.7% year over year to $7.1 billion, slightly below the consensus analyst forecast ($7.14 billion). Systemwide sales rose 5%, and global comparable sales rose 1.3%.

In the home market, comparable sales rose only 0.8%, weaker than management expected. International operated markets gained 1.5%, and licensed markets rose 1.9%. The company attributes the results to a challenging consumer environment and lower traffic in certain major markets. GAAP net income increased 5% to $2.36 billion, and diluted earnings per share reached $3.32. Adjusted EPS was $3.38, beating the market forecast of $3.34.

The company slowed the pace of network expansion

The most notable change was new management guidance on business development. McDonald’s now expects to reach 50,000 restaurants not in 2027 but in 2028. At the same time, the plan to open 2,600 restaurants (gross) and 2,100 restaurants (net) in 2026 was maintained, and the company expects capital expenditures in the range of $3.7–3.9 billion.

During the conference call, management also acknowledged it is not satisfied with the performance of the U.S. business. At the same time, the company expects to accelerate growth through its NEXT strategy, the development of digital services, and an increase in average check size. An additional step was the appointment of Sky Anderson as president of McDonald’s USA, experts note.

First-quarter figures

McDonald’s ended the first quarter of 2026 with stronger results: global comparable sales rose 3.8%, systemwide sales increased 11%, and revenue grew 9%. At that time, the company showed solid growth across all key segments; however, in the second quarter the pace began to slow, especially in the U.S. market, which was one of the reasons for analysts’ more cautious assessment.

Not an individual investment recommendation.