Freedom Broker: record cash flow supports Newmont stock upside potential

Freedom Broker experts maintained their “Buy” rating on Newmont Corporation (NEM) shares and a $130 target price. With record free cash flow and active capital returns to shareholders, the company remains one of the most attractive bets in the gold-mining sector. At the current price of $105,4, the upside to the target level is 23,3%.

Newmont is the largest gold miner with strong cash flow

Newmont is one of the world’s largest gold producers with a diversified portfolio of mining assets. Following the acquisition of Newcrest Mining, the company focused on improving portfolio efficiency and cutting costs, which is already reflected in its financial results. Newmont completed the purchase of Australian gold miner Newcrest Mining in November 2023. The deal value was about $16,8 bln, creating the world’s largest gold-mining company. 

According to Freedom Broker analysts, the key positive factor for the gold-mining sector remains the ability of major producers to convert high gold prices into free cash flow. In this regard, Newmont is showing particularly strong momentum.

Record free cash flow

In Q2 2026, Newmont generated $2,2 bln in free cash flow — a record quarterly figure. The company produced about 1,3 mln ounces of gold and maintained its plan to produce 5,3 mln ounces for full-year 2026.

Net income for the quarter amounted to $2,2 bln, and adjusted net income was also $2,2 bln, or $2,10 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA reached $3,8 bln. Cash flow from operating activities totaled $2,9 bln.

$1,9 bln returned to shareholders

Strong cash flow enabled Newmont to actively return capital to shareholders. Since the previous earnings call, the company has allocated $1,9 bln to dividends and share buybacks.

Since February 2024, Newmont reduced shares outstanding by more than 100 mln, or about 9%. The company expects that further reductions in share count will allow it to increase dividends per share without raising the total payout amount.

Gold miners benefit from high gold prices

According to Freedom Broker analysts, the wave of buybacks is becoming one of the key drivers for gold-mining stocks. High free cash flow allows producers to reduce shares outstanding even during corrections in gold prices.

The analysts maintained a constructive view on gold and forecast the metal at $4 985 per ounce in 2026, rising to $5 311 in 2027, followed by a decline to $4 625 in 2028.

They believe the market will be supported by central-bank gold purchases, resilient investment demand, and limited supply growth. At the same time, the main risks for prices remain a stronger dollar, rising real yields, and weakening investment demand.

Newmont maintains its development plans

The company remains focused not only on capital returns but also on investing in its operating portfolio. In 2026, Newmont plans to allocate nearly $2 bln to sustaining production capacity. In the first half of the year, the company has already invested $819 mln in asset sustaining and $524 mln in development projects. One of the key events was receiving regulatory permits in British Columbia for work at the Red Chris Block Cave copper-gold mine.

What investors may find interesting

In February 2026, Newmont reported adjusted earnings of $2,52 per share, beating the average analyst forecast of $2. The result was supported by record gold prices: the average realized price was $4 216 per ounce, nearly 60% higher than a year earlier. At the same time, production volume fell 24% to 1,45 mln ounces amid scheduled work at several major deposits.

The company continued portfolio optimization after the acquisition of Newcrest Mining, and as part of restructuring it also cut about 16% of its workforce. The corporation also sold more than $2 bln of assets and focused on the most efficient operations.

In Q3 2025, the company generated a record $1,6 bln in FCF, and the cumulative figure since the start of the year reached $4,5 bln. Against this backdrop, Freedom Broker maintained a “Buy” rating with a $107 target price. Experts noted a strong balance sheet, reduced debt, and successful business optimization following the Newcrest deal.

Not an individual investment recommendation