Freedom Broker analysts expect Disney shares to rise by nearly 30%

Freedom Broker experts maintain a “Buy” recommendation on The Walt Disney Company (DIS) shares with a target price of $135. At the current price of $103.18, the upside potential is 28.7%. According to analysts, strong results from the parks and cruise businesses, as well as a noticeable improvement in the streaming economics, will offset weakness in advertising revenue and pressure on the sports segment.

Disney is reshaping its business around streaming and Experiences

The Walt Disney Company is one of the world’s largest players in the entertainment industry. The company combines a media business, film studios, the Disney+ and Hulu streaming platforms, the ESPN sports business, theme parks, and a cruise business.

Disney’s strategic transformation implies a gradual reduction in reliance on traditional television through the development of streaming and direct channels of consumer engagement, the experts believe. At the same time, the Experiences segment—parks, resorts, cruises, and consumer products—remains one of the group’s most resilient and profitable areas.

Revenue rose 7%, operating profit up 21%

In fiscal Q3 2026, Disney’s revenue increased 7% year over year to $25.25 bn. Total segment operating profit rose 21% to $5.56 bn and exceeded the $5.23 bn consensus. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.06 versus $1.61 a year earlier, up 28%. 

Experiences remains the main driver

Revenue in the Experiences segment, which includes theme parks, cruises, and consumer products, grew 10% year over year to $9.97 bn. 

The segment’s operating profit increased 20% to $3.02 bn versus expectations of $2.78 bn. Attendance at U.S. parks rose 3%, and per-capita spending increased 4%. The total number of guests at the parks and cruise ships increased 4%.

An additional driver was the expansion of the cruise business: two new ships, Disney Destiny and Disney Adventure, increased available berths by about 50%, with combined capacity of more than 9 thousand people. At the same time, international parks showed weaker performance: operating profit at Asian assets fell 13% due to weaker consumer demand in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Freedom Broker analysts consider resilient demand at U.S. parks and the expansion of the cruise fleet to be among Disney’s key long-term growth factors.

Streaming materially improved profitability

The Entertainment segment, which includes film studios and television networks, was another source of improved financial performance. Segment revenue grew 6% to $11.35 bn, and operating profit increased 64% to $1.68 bn.

The streaming business posted particularly strong momentum. Entertainment SVOD (Subscription Video on Demand, paid subscription) revenue rose 11% to $5.53 bn. Subscription revenue increased 15% to $4.72 bn, while advertising revenue totaled $851 mln and came in below expectations due to a decline in ad rates.

SVOD operating profit more than doubled—from $329 mln to $712 mln. Operating margin reached about 13%. According to analysts, this confirms a gradual improvement in streaming economics: Disney is simultaneously growing subscription revenue, raising prices, and reducing churn.

Sports grows its audience but faces rising costs

Revenue in the sports segment increased 4% to $4.50 bn. Growth was supported by price increases, a higher number of ad impressions, and the acquisition of new rights, including the NFL. In 2026, DIS acquired key media assets of the National Football League in exchange for transferring the NFL 10% of its business equity. However, operating profit declined 17% to $858 mln. The main reason was an increase in the cost of sports content, as well as changes in the timing of recognition of certain expenses under the NBA contract.

At the same time, viewership for the NBA and NHL finals more than doubled. The third fiscal quarter was the most-watched third quarter since 2016 for the company’s sports media networks ESPN, ESPN2, and ABC sports broadcasts.

Analysts view the development of the sports business, including the ESPN+ streaming platform, as one of Disney’s long-term drivers, although the high cost of sports rights remains a significant risk to margins.

Disney increases its share buyback program

Management maintained its forecast for adjusted EPS growth of about 12% in fiscal 2026 excluding the 53rd week, and 16% including it. Expectations for double-digit adjusted EPS growth in fiscal 2027 were also reaffirmed.

At the same time, Disney raised its forecast for Experiences operating profit growth to the upper end of the previously stated range. The company also increased its share repurchase plan—at least to $9 bn from the previous $8 bn.

Freedom Broker experts’ outlook

The long-term investment thesis for the company remains intact. Freedom Broker expects Disney to be able to gradually improve streaming profitability, monetize its vast content library, increase park revenue, and expand its cruise business.

The main growth drivers remain accelerating streaming revenue and profitability, monetization of Disney’s popular franchises, development of parks and cruises, and expansion of the sports business.

Among the key risks, analysts highlight a decline in consumer purchasing power, an ускорение of audience churn away from traditional television, rising costs for sports rights, and potential unsuccessful releases of new content.

News from previous quarters

In December 2025, Disney announced a three-year partnership with OpenAI and a $1 bn equity investment in the company. Under the agreement, more than 200 Disney, Marvel, Pixar, and Star Wars characters are to be used in user-generated content created using OpenAI technologies. This direction could potentially expand ways to monetize Disney’s intellectual property and links its largest franchises to the development of generative artificial intelligence.

In February 2026, Disney announced the appointment of Josh D’Amaro as the company’s next CEO. He led Disney Experiences, responsible for parks, resorts, cruises, and consumer products, and his appointment was part of a planned leadership transition.

The company also maintains a significant amount of available liquidity. In March, Disney entered into a new unsecured credit agreement for $5.25 bn with a 364-day term and extended a five-year $4 bn credit facility to 2031.

Not an individual investment recommendation.