FB: Strong EBITDA and electricity demand support Vistra shares

Freedom Broker analysts maintained a “Buy” rating on Vistra Corporation (VST) shares with a target price of $167.78. At the current price of $148.40, the upside potential is about 13.1%. According to experts, strong Q2 results, high availability of generation capacity, and a large-scale hedging program increase confidence in meeting the company’s financial guidance, while the recent pullback creates conditions for a rebound in the stock.

A major U.S. energy market operator

Vistra Corporation (VST) is one of the largest integrated energy companies in the U.S., operating in competitive generation and retail electricity sales. The company serves about 5 million customers and has roughly 44 GW of generation capacity, including nuclear, gas, coal, and solar power plants, as well as energy storage systems.

EBITDA increased by more than 30%

The analyst’s main argument in favor of the stock is the resilient trajectory of operating performance. In Q2 2026, adjusted EBITDA from Vistra’s continuing operations rose 31% year over year to $1.77 billion, versus $1.35 billion a year earlier. For the first half of the year, the metric increased 26% to $3.26 billion from $2.59 billion a year earlier.

At the same time, net income in Q2 totaled $305 million versus $327 million a year earlier. The decline is explained primarily by an increase in unrealized losses on hedging positions of $488 million. They were largely offset by higher realized prices and capacity revenues, as well as contributions from acquired assets.

The most notable EBITDA growth came from the energy business in the eastern U.S.: the Eastern segment rose from $418 million to $642 million. In Texas, EBITDA more than doubled—from $142 million to $311 million.

The company maintained its 2026 outlook

Vistra reaffirmed its 2026 outlook: the company expects adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations in the range of $6.8–7.6 billion, and adjusted free cash flow before growth investments of $3.925–4.725 billion.

In Freedom Broker’s view, the hedging policy provides substantial support for the outlook. As of August 3, the company had hedged about 100% of expected generation volumes for 2026, 94% for 2027, and 72% for 2028. This increases the predictability of cash flows and margins, though it also limits the benefit from potential further increases in spot electricity prices.

High capacity availability reduces risks

Another positive factor, the analyst notes, is the operational reliability of Vistra’s fleet. In July, load at Texas system operator ERCOT reached a record 91.1 GW, exceeding the previous peak by 6.5%.

Against the backdrop of extreme heat, the commercial availability of Vistra’s generation capacity was 97% or higher during periods of elevated load in Texas and at PJM (the energy market operator for 13 states). According to Freedom Broker, this level of reliability reduces the likelihood of unplanned outages and the need to buy electricity on the spot market at high prices.

Buybacks and new projects support the investment case

An additional factor supporting the share price remains the stock buyback program. Since November 2021, Vistra has repurchased about $6.5 billion of its own shares and reduced shares outstanding by roughly 30%.

As of August 3, the company had about $1.2 billion remaining under its buyback authorization. From June 30 to August 3, Vistra repurchased about $68 million of shares at an average price of $154.78. The company expects to complete the remaining portion of the program no later than the end of 2027.

In parallel, Vistra is expanding its presence in data center infrastructure. Together with investment fund KKR, the Kuwait Investment Authority, and Nvidia, the company created the Helix Digital Infrastructure project—a network to manage large-scale infrastructure for the needs of AI and cloud giants. The project value was $10 billion, and Vistra initially committed to invest up to $1 billion. Vistra also acquired power producer Cogentrix Energy and is advancing the construction of new gas-fired capacity in the Permian Basin.

Shares rebound after the pullback

According to analysts, the technical picture also points to a possible recovery. After falling about 21% from the local high of $171.35, Vistra shares found support around $134.75 and moved back above $140. 

The RSI (relative strength index) recovering to 45.8 and the weakening negative momentum in MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) indicate easing selling pressure. Against this backdrop, Freedom Broker sets a target price of $167.78. The recommended stop-loss is $133.15, and the investment idea horizon is through October 13, 2026.

This is not an individual investment recommendation.