Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley commented on the rise in AI spending

Corporate spending on artificial intelligence is accelerating sharply, but this technology has not yet led to a significant improvement in profits for most companies, Goldman Sachs notes. An analysis of the financial results of S&P500 companies for Q2 2026 showed that companies involved in AI infrastructure and hyperscalers are already benefiting significantly. Their profit 
rose by 54% year over year, accounting for about half of the quarterly profit growth in the S&P500 index. At the same time, profit growth for the rest of the market excluding the energy sector was only 14%.

Goldman Sachs also notes that the rapid expansion of AI investment in the U.S. could begin to crowd out spending in other sectors of the economy, although to date the bank has found relatively little evidence of this. The bank estimates that U.S. AI investment will reach nearly $600 billion in 2026, equivalent to nearly 2% of U.S. GDP.

The AI investment boom is increasingly becoming a topic for capital markets: as hyperscalers expand their spending plans and the gap between capital expenditures and cash generation widens, financing structures are evolving rapidly, Morgan Stanley notes.

The four largest hyperscalers—Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta—will increase aggregate capital expenditures by 57% by 2027 compared with 2026, the bank estimates. These spending plans reflect growing confidence in achieving a return on invested capital of at least 25%. Meanwhile, the gap between capital spending and revenue generation continues to pressure cash flow formation in the short term. Morgan Stanley’s 2027 free cash flow forecasts for the four hyperscalers were revised downward. As a result, an increase in AI-related lending is expected to be needed before cash flows begin to catch up.